Today: Miami's longshot odds, transfer portal intel, Dylan Raiola's decision, and Auburn's turnaround.

~9.5 minute read (2,087 words)

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Miami bidding to be 3rd largest underdog to win title in BCS or College Football Playoff era

Since Miami was selected as the final team in the College Football Playoff, the Hurricanes have faced long odds to win their first national title since 2001. Now they must overcome even more.

Miami is an 8.5-point underdog to Indiana, according to BetMGM. The Hurricanes are trying to become the third-largest underdog to pull an upset in a BCS or College Football Playoff title game in the past 27 years.

Only two underdogs of more than 8.5 points have pulled off bigger upsets since 1998: Ohio State as an 11.5-point underdog against Miami in the 2002 title game and Oklahoma as a 10.5-point underdog against Florida State in the 2000 title game.

Beyond being more than a touchdown underdog, Miami must also overcome recent domination by title game favorites. Since 2019, the last six national championship favorites have each won and covered the point spread.

The last underdog to win the national title game was Clemson in 2018. The Tigers were 5-point underdogs to Alabama but stunned the Crimson Tide 44-16.

Since the inaugural BCS title game in 1998, favorites have won 17 of the 27 national championship games.

In total, there have been 57 BCS or College Football Playoff games since 1998. Miami is the 19th team to enter one of those games as an underdog of at least 8.5 points. Favorites have won 16 of the previous 18 such matchups.

However, this season Miami (13-2) has thrived in the underdog role, going 3-0 straight-up. The Hurricanes opened the season with a 27-24 upset of Notre Dame as a 3-point underdog, then followed with a 10-3 first-round playoff win at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog and a 24-14 quarterfinal victory over Ohio State as a 7.5-point underdog.

Indiana (15-0) has been favored in 13 of its 15 games this season. The Hoosiers covered the spread in nine of those 13 games, including playoff wins against Alabama (38-3 as a 7.5-point favorite) and Oregon (56-22 as a 3-point favorite). Under Curt Cignetti, Indiana is 26-0 straight-up as a favorite.

Largest national title spreads since 1998

2022: Georgia -13.5 vs. TCU (Georgia 65-7)
2002: Miami -11.5 vs. Ohio State (Ohio State 31-24)
2013: Florida State -11 vs. Auburn (Florida State 34-31)
2000: Florida State -10.5 vs. Oklahoma (Oklahoma 13-2)
2012: Alabama -10 vs. Notre Dame (Alabama 42-14)
2020: Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State (Alabama 52-24)
2025: Indiana -8.5 vs. Miami (?)
2024: Ohio State -8.5 vs. Notre Dame (Ohio State 34-23)

Read the full story from Brett McMurphy.

TRANSFER PORTAL

Transfer Portal Intel: Damon Wilson taking second visit, one school trending for TJ Dottery & more

With the three-day dead period in the rearview, transfer portal visits are starting up again on Thursday. Another wave of commitments and entries are expected in the next 72 hours. Here is the latest On3 transfer portal intel.

Ole Miss LB TJ Dottery

One of the top linebackers to hit the transfer portal this cycle will have a multitude of options. But the sense among sources is that LSU is the clear team to beat. Plenty of other top-25 programs will make calls to get in the mix. Ole Miss is still fighting to get Dottery back to Oxford.

Missouri EDGE Damon Wilson

Sources tell On3 that the top available pass rusher in the transfer portal is set to arrive on a Texas Tech visit on Thursday. Miami is the other top contender in this recruitment and is expected to land the final visit before Wilson makes a decision.

Kent State EDGE Jamond Mathis

Mathis committed to Virginia earlier this week but has yet to sign papers with the Cavaliers. Texas Tech is bringing him in for a visit on Thursday, working to flip him from the ACC school. Mathis posted six sacks in 2025.

Colorado OL Jordan Seaton

While Seaton has yet to officially enter the transfer portal, Oregon and Texas remain two of the top schools to keep an eye on in this recruitment. Sources have also told On3 that Colorado is working to keep Seaton in Boulder, too

Oregon QB Bryson Beaver

Sources tell On3 that two early schools to keep tabs on in this recruitment are Georgia and Kentucky for the short-term signee.

North Carolina DL D'Antre Robinson

One of the top remaining defensive tackles in the portal, Robinson is visiting Auburn today and is scheduled to be at Oregon over the weekend.

Read Nakos' intel on the top 11 players in the portal.

TRANSFER PORTAL

Why Dylan Raiola transferring to Oregon despite Dante Moore is a functional career move

When former Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola announced his transfer to Oregon on Monday, the Ducks' quarterback situation still appeared unsettled. Many assumed Raiola was headed to Eugene to take over for Dante Moore, a projected top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

That, however, was not the decision Raiola made. Two days later, Moore announced he was returning to Oregon for the 2026 season, passing on what could have been an immediate professional future. That is information Raiola almost certainly had to consider before choosing Oregon.

So it's official. Raiola will not be a starting quarterback in the Big Ten next season. And, frankly, that may be the most functional decision he and his camp have made since the beginning of his high school career.

If you are unfamiliar with Raiola's tendency to change teams, the timeline is extensive:

2021: Burleson High School (TX) → 2021-22: Chandler High School (AZ) → 2022: Ohio State commitment → 2022: Ohio State decommitment → 2023: Pinnacle High School (AZ) → 2023: Georgia commitment → 2023: Buford High School (GA) → 2023: Georgia decommitment → 2023: Nebraska signee → 2024-25: Nebraska starter → Now: Oregon

Say what you want about Raiola, but that's a lot of indecision for one player. Fair or not, that level of movement can suggest a focus on individual opportunity rather than committing to a program through ups and downs. Raiola was bouncing around well before the transfer portal normalized that behavior, which led many to question whether he was built for the highest level.

To be clear, Raiola was a former five-star prospect in the 2024 class, though On3 ranked him as a high four-star. You do not receive offers from Ryan Day, Kirby Smart, and other elite coaches without real talent. He ultimately chose Nebraska, a program with deep family ties, to help revive the Cornhuskers.

And while in Lincoln, he largely delivered. Raiola took a noticeable step forward in his second season, improving his mobility and completing 72 percent of his passes. Nebraska was a better team as a result, even if it never fully broke through under Matt Rhule. A broken fibula midway through the year cost him the back half of his sophomore season.

Still, Raiola has been a lightning rod, fueled by constant comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. He looks like him, shares similar mannerisms, and even mirrors some of his pregame routines. Combined with his recruiting hype and constant movement, that made him an easy target.

When Raiola entered the transfer portal and left Nebraska, many assumed he was chasing money or a fresh start for selfish reasons. Maybe he was. But the decision he ultimately made was practical.

Rather than forcing his way into another starting job, Raiola followed the path Dante Moore took two years ago when he transferred from UCLA to Oregon, knowing he would sit and wait his turn. That patience paid off for Moore, whose NFL future remains intact.

Raiola now has the opportunity to fully heal, develop behind an established starter, and wait until 2027. There is no guarantee he will start. Oregon could always pivot if it doesn't believe he is the answer. But this move shows a level of patience and self-awareness few expected.

Everyone benefits. Moore gets another shot, Raiola gets a reset, and Lanning avoids having to scramble for a QB next year.

It was a practical decision. Now let's see if it works.

Read the full column from Ari Wasserman.

🚨Headlines

TRANSFER PORTAL

Auburn and Alex Golesh have had some big wins in the portal and are in the mix for more

Who got to the facility first, head coach Alex Golesh or starting quarterback Byrum Brown? It was a daily question around USF last season, and it has followed both to Auburn.

Golesh bringing the dual-threat Brown with him to The Plains stands as one of the most significant transfer portal wins of this cycle. Auburn is looking to rebuild quickly after firing Hugh Freeze following three losing seasons, and the pairing of Golesh and Brown provides immediate direction. Golesh gives the Tigers a schematic upgrade on offense, while Brown brings one of the most proven résumés at quarterback in college football.

The 6-foot-3, 231-pound Brown led the nation in points responsible last season, helping USF average 21.3 points per game. That mark topped Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and finalist Diego Pavia. Brown also ranked No. 1 nationally in total offense, throwing for 3,158 yards and 28 touchdowns while adding 1,008 rushing yards and 14 more scores. If he approaches those numbers at Auburn, he'll be firmly in the Heisman conversation.

"His process is elite," a source told On3, pointing to Brown's preparation, leadership and daily habits. He was often the first person in the building, sometimes beating Golesh himself, living in the film room and leading by example. "A really, really special cat."

Brown ranks as the No. 4 quarterback and No. 12 overall player in the On3 Industry Transfer Portal rankings. His arrival allows a first-year staff to hit the ground running in the SEC with a roster that has talent but lacked direction under the previous regime. Auburn's offense struggled mightily last season, and this transfer portal haul is designed to change that quickly.

Golesh and his staff completely retooled the quarterback room, adding Tristan Ti'a from Oregon State and bringing freshman Locklan Hewlett from USF. They also landed Bryson Washington, the No. 7 running back in the portal, after he rushed for nearly 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns at Baylor over the past two seasons.

Up front, former USF lineman Cole Best joined transfers Cole Skinner, Joseph Simmons, and Stanton Ramil to address major needs on the offensive line. Oregon State transfer Jacob Strand remains a key target as Auburn continues to prioritize the position.

Receiver is another area of emphasis. Several USF pass-catchers followed Golesh and Brown, including Keshaun Singleton, Jeremiah Koger, Chas Nimrod, and Christian Neptune. Auburn is also in the mix for LSU transfer Kyle Parker, a player the Tigers have led for while Kentucky and Ohio State continue to push.

Defensively, Auburn added All-Sun Belt tackle Cody Sigler and massive interior presence Saint Farrior, while remaining involved with LSU transfer Walter Mathis Jr. and four-star D'Antre Robinson. In the secondary, Andre Jordan Jr. and Shamar Arnoux bring experience and upside.

Edge rusher remains a priority. Missouri transfer Nate Johnson, who had 10 sacks in two seasons at Appalachian State, is already in the fold, but Auburn is still searching for one or two more pass-rush threats. With what's already been assembled and what's still in play, this portal class should put Auburn back on a winning track. How it finishes could determine how far the Tigers can go in 2026.

Read the full story from Steve Wiltfong.

TRIVIA

Now here's a guy...

Below, you'll find 3 facts about a random college football player. You'll try to guess who the player is based on the facts. Let's go.

I walked on at East Carolina, earned a scholarship, and set a school freshman record with 64 catches in my first season seeing the field.
I became a two-time first-team All-Conference USA receiver after back-to-back seasons with more than 1,100 receiving yards.
I finished my career as the NCAA's all-time receptions leader, fourth all-time in career receiving yards, and won the Burlsworth Trophy after starting my college career as a walk-on.

Answer at the bottom.

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