Today: Week 11 predictions, Hugh Freeze's missteps at Auburn, upset alerts, best bets, and coaching carousel developments.

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NCAA FOOTBALL

Josh Pate predicts Week 11's biggest games

Josh Pate is back with a trio of previews from across the country, each one likely the premier game in its conference this weekend. From Lubbock to Iowa City to Tuscaloosa, Pate spotlighted matchups loaded with intrigue and upset potential.

No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (12:00 PM, ABC)

Pate pointed out a scheduling quirk worth noting: this will be Texas Tech's sixth straight game, while BYU comes in off a bye. Even so, he's leaning Red Raiders. Pate believes BYU's freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier could be forced into uncomfortable spots if Texas Tech dictates tempo. "There are a couple of dam-breaker moments that could happen here," he said, adding that if BYU is put in an unfamiliar spot, "there's a chance for Texas Tech to get margin."

Pate's prediction: Texas Tech wins and covers.

No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 PM, FOX)

Trips to Kinnick Stadium are rarely easy, and Oregon's first Big Ten visit there will be no exception. Pate says the Ducks must be patient, resisting the urge to force big plays early. "It's far more likely that it gets drug out into the deep end and the score is like 13-9 in the fourth quarter," he said. Oregon will need to seize its opportunity late, as Pate believes "there will be a short stretch where you get a chance to deliver a knockout blow. It comes down to whether you land it."

Pate's prediction: Oregon wins but Iowa covers.

LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 PM, ABC)

What's typically a massive game has intrigue for a different reason, as LSU enters the post-Brian Kelly era. Interim coach Frank Wilson takes over and immediately faces a top-four Alabama team in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Pate expects effort, not apathy, from the Tigers, saying he anticipates "the most fight you've seen out of LSU all year." He added that while the Tigers "may lose by 30" or "win outright," he doubts it will be because they show up unprepared. For him, this is a locker room eager to play for a coach they respect.

Pate's prediction: Alabama wins but LSU covers.

Read all of Pate's previews here.

NCAA FOOTBALL

Inside how a string of quarterback misses derailed Hugh Freeze's Auburn tenure

Hugh Freeze, Jackson Arnold, and Payton Thorne

When Hugh Freeze arrived at Auburn in 2022, he called quarterback development his gift. "If you look at everywhere we've been, we've had pretty good success with that," he said in his introductory interview. That reputation never materialized on The Plains.

Freeze was fired Sunday after going 6-16 in SEC play across three seasons. Auburn recruited well and spent heavily in NIL, but the offense never found stability. "The mistake that he made was that he picked the wrong quarterbacks," a source close to the situation told On3. "That's 90% of college football right now."

2023: The Payton Thorne gamble

Freeze's first major move came when he brought in Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne. The veteran threw for 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as Auburn finished 6-6. "Everybody says that Hugh Freeze was fired because he picked the wrong quarterbacks in the portal," a source told On3. "He didn't develop the quarterbacks. Developing quarterbacks, putting them in situations to succeed, is critical for an offensive play caller."

After the season, internal voices pushed for Washington State's Cam Ward. Freeze hesitated. "He said he wouldn't pay Cam $1 million," one source told On3. A Power Four general manager said "it was a surprise" that Auburn did not bring in an experienced quarterback.

2024: Missed development and mounting frustration

The quarterback struggles continued into 2024. Thorne and freshman Hank Brown both stumbled early, and Freeze began criticizing them publicly. One source close to Thorne called the lack of offseason preparation "crazy." Another said, "Auburn does not have a talent issue. They don't know how to develop quarterbacks. They don't know how to put them in positions to succeed, and then they blame them."

A 5-7 finish intensified the pressure. "Payton was not a bad quarterback, and it was not all on Hugh," a source said, noting the role of assistant coaches Kent Austin and Jesse Stone.

2025: The final misstep

Freeze again turned to the portal and targeted Oklahoma's Jackson Arnold, offering roughly $1.5 million. "I thought it was crazy to bring in someone who had failed," an SEC general manager said. "Given the stakes, it was a huge risk. Zero return on investment."

Arnold ran for seven touchdowns but threw for only six before being replaced by Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels. Auburn's 10-3 loss to Kentucky ended Freeze's tenure. "We saw it in spring. We saw it in training camp. Nothing that's happened has been a surprise," a source told On3.

As one source summed up, "He whiffed on his quarterback situation. If he had the right quarterback with that talent, he's still there, and they're 6-2."

Read the full report from Pete Nakos.

NCAA FOOTBALL

Josh Pate's Week 11 college football upset alerts

Curt Cignetti, Kirby Smart, Clark Lea, Marcus Freeman

With conference title races heating up and playoff dreams on the line, Week 11 brings a handful of tricky spots for heavy favorites. On Thursday's show, he rated six matchups on his Upset Alert Meter, ranging from 0.5 to 7. Here are the ones that caught his eye most heading into Saturday.

No. 2 Indiana (-14.5) at Penn State

Indiana being a two-touchdown favorite would have sounded impossible in early September. Now, Pate wonders if Penn State fans will even stick around for the second half. "I'm down on this," he said. "I know I told you it's a three… I've got a two on it. I don't see it, I don't see it. Then again, that's the anatomy of an upset. You're not supposed to see it on the horizon."

Concern meter: 2/10
Expectations: Indiana wins without much resistance.

No. 5 Georgia (-9) at Mississippi State

Pate believes this one could be tight. Mississippi State is being overlooked because of its record, but he insists "it's not a bad team" and notes that State "scored 38 on Texas." He even considered putting this matchup at the top of his chart before pulling back slightly, on account of his pal Brandon Walker.

Concern meter: 9/10
Expectations: Georgia survives a close one in Starkville.

Auburn (+6.5) at No. 16 Vanderbilt

Auburn begins life after Hugh Freeze with DJ Durkin at the helm, while Vanderbilt looks to rebound from a tough loss in Austin. Pate expects a scrappy, low-possession game that could get interesting late. "Limited possessions, anything can happen," he said.

Concern meter: 7/10
Expectations: Auburn and Vandy will be sweating this one out in Nashville.

Wake Forest (+6.5) at No. 14 Virginia

Virginia sits in uncharted territory as the ACC's front-runner, and Pate thinks that might be dangerous. Virginia is contending for a Playoff spot for the first time and is favored in a pressure-packed November game. "Sometimes it can go to your head and you play a little bit tighter."

Concern meter: 6/10
Expectations: Virginia is likely going to get a scare in this one.

See all the games Pate has circled.

PRESENTED BY BETMGM

Best Bets: Brett McMurphy's Week 11 picks

As far as disasters go, last week's picks were bad, but not quite Titanic/Hindenburg/Sopranos fade to black finale-level bad. Brett went 1-10, dropping his season record to 36-50-2. That kind of performance takes real skill, but he's confident the bounce-back starts now. Citing Mack Brown's own 1-10 seasons before landing in the College Football Hall of Fame, Brett insists there's still hope for redemption. He's guaranteeing one thing this week: he will not go 1-10 again. Lines provided by BetMGM.

Join now using code 'On3' and get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

Houston at UCF (Friday): UCF +1.5
Mississippi State vs. Georgia: Mississippi State +8
SMU at Boston College: Boston College +10.5
Nebraska at UCLA: UCLA -2.5

See all 7 of McMurphy's picks here.

🚨Headlines

COACHING CAROUSEL

The carousel takes a hit as top names commit to staying put

Kenny Dillingham, Brent Key, Luke Fickell

The college football coaching carousel slowed down this week as several high-profile names took themselves out of the mix. One coach reaffirmed his loyalty to his alma mater, another told his players he is staying put, and a third escapes the hot seat (for now) after his school committed more resources to football.

At Georgia Tech, Brent Key firmly ended speculation about his future. The former Yellow Jackets lineman has guided his team to an 8-1 start and was being mentioned for multiple Power Four openings. On Thursday, he reminded everyone that his focus is on building Georgia Tech into a consistent contender.

"It's just the beginning. Slice me open and see what colors I bleed." —Brent Key

Elsewhere, Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham also appears to be staying put. Multiple reports said Dillingham visited several position meetings last week to tell players he plans to return for a fourth season in Tempe.

The 35-year-old coach has been a popular name in the carousel, drawing reported interest from LSU, Florida, and Auburn. Despite that, Dillingham has deep ties to ASU as both a Scottsdale native and the school's first alumnus to lead the program. The Sun Devils are coming off their first College Football Playoff appearance and remain positioned for long-term success.

At Wisconsin, Luke Fickell will return for the 2026 season after weeks of questions about his job security. Athletic director Chris McIntosh confirmed the school will make what he called a "significant" investment in the program through infrastructure, staff, and roster building via NIL and revenue sharing. Instead of paying a large buyout, Wisconsin plans to invest in the future with Fickell still in charge.

Three coaches, three different stories, and one clear message. Brent Key, Kenny Dillingham, and Luke Fickell are staying put, removing several major names and jobs from the 2025 coaching carousel.

TRIVIA

Now here's a guy...

Below, you'll find 3 facts about a random college football player. You'll try to guess who the player is based on the facts. Let's go.

I arrived early in Gainesville and became just the seventh true freshman in Florida history to start a season opener on the offensive line.
My twin brother and I anchored Urban Meyer's offensive front during the Gators' 2008 national championship run.
Before declaring early for the draft, I won the Rimington Trophy as the nation's top center, becoming the first Gator ever to earn that honor.

Answer at the bottom.

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