| | | | Trump's Most Catastrophic Decision? | | | As the US is set to formally withdraw tomorrow from its Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, observers are worried that an arms race could ensue over nuclear missiles with shorter ranges and lower payloads than ICBMS.
"Where is the political determination to carry on the hard work—the negotiating—to avert another nuclear arms race?" The Washington Post writes in a concerned editorial. "So far, it is not evident." Writing for CNN, David A. Andelman recently suggested such an arms race could be President Trump's most damaging legacy. If more of them are built, smaller nukes "would need to take only one small step to reach the hands of terrorists who know no restraints and care nothing of consequences," he warns. | | As debate continues in US foreign-policy circles over how, exactly, America should approach China—as an enemy, rival, competitor, or friend—two former Obama-administration officials, Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan, argue in Foreign Affairs that the US should simply make the best of things.
The US has never faced a challenger like China (the Soviet Union's GDP never reached 60% of America's, they write, while China's is close in size); China's ideological appeal will be formidable, too, as its state-run economic growth and mastery of digital surveillance will appeal to other countries. The key for America, Campbell and Sullivan write, is to discard any hope of defeating China like it did the Soviet Union, gird for long-term competition, and secure the most favorable terms possible. That means setting norms on tech and trade, strengthening alliances, and cooperating with China where possible on issues like climate change, which won't get solved unless the world's top powers work in concert. | | The 'Asian Century' Is Already Over | | That was fast: After expectations that a rising Asia would become a dominant market and political force, Michael Auslin (author of The End of the Asian Century) declares at Foreign Policy that the so-called "Asian Century" is "ending far faster than anyone could have predicted," as signs now point to fragile Asian stability.
"From a dramatically slowing Chinese economy to showdowns over democracy in Hong Kong and a new cold war between Japan and South Korea, the dynamism that was supposed to propel the region into a glorious future seems to be falling apart," Auslin writes—which, he concludes, should provide more room for the US to exert influence on the continent. | | Latin America's Anti-Corruption Wave Crashes | | In recent years, high-profile corruption cases in Latin America—like Brazil's Odebrecht scandal that took down a former president, and the Panama Papers leak that revealed corruption worldwide—generated hope that corruption was being stamped out of governments across the region. That hope is fading a bit, Brian Winter writes in the latest issue of Americas Quarterly, which takes the stalled momentum of Latin America's anti-corruption drive as its focus. Anti-corruption campaigns remain popular, he writes, but some high-profile anti-corruption figures have had flaws exposed, and continued scandals are undermining the region's faith in democracy.
Chile offers a roadmap for how corruption can be taken on, Roberto Simon writes, as former president Michelle Bachelet leveraged public sentiment to pass systemic reforms after a scandal involving her son. (That country tops the journal's index of countries best able to fight corruption in the region.) In the same issue, Ben Miller and Fernanda Uriegas round up Latin America's most notable corruption cases of the last decade (from Odebrecht to Argentinian bribes recorded in a driver's notebook), and Brendan O'Boyle, Emilie Swiegart, and Benjamin Russell outline which anti-corruption measures work and which don't (term limits and campaign-finance rules might not, they suggest). | | What's a Central Banker to Do? | | As Fareed has noted, central banks now face political attacks from populist leaders, after enjoying decades of relative independence. The American Fed has now drawn President Trump's ire after cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point (less than he would have liked), and Raghuram Rajan offers some advice to central bankers feeling political heat.
His counsel, in a Project Syndicate op-ed: Be transparent and try to win public trust. "The sooner the public understands that central bankers are ordinary people doing a difficult job with limited tools under trying circumstances, the less it will expect monetary policy magically to correct elected politicians' errors," he writes. "Under current conditions, that may be the best form of independence central bankers can hope for." | | | | | | |
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