| | | | Bibi Was Talking to One Person Yesterday | | Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's primetime presentation on Iran's nuclear program offered little we didn't already know – including that Iran lied about its weapons program, Jennifer Rubin argues in the Washington Post. But that might not matter. After all, this presentation was likely designed with an audience of one in mind.
"Why would Netanyahu put on this show if ultimately it didn't deliver the killer proof of Iran cheating? Most likely, he figured (not unreasonably) that he'd bamboozle Trump into believing Iran is currently cheating," Rubin says. "Trump hears what he wants to hear, and is already disposed to undo the Obama administration's signature achievement. It is altogether possible that President Trump will nix the deal — with just a little push from Netanyahu.
"Nevertheless, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis (and perhaps others) will have to break it to Trump: There is no evidence Iran is in violation of the deal, and the Europeans won't agree to reimpose sanctions absent such proof." - We've seen this movie before. Netanyahu's presentation had distinct echoes of his push for military action against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, writes Chemi Shalev for Haaertz. We know how that ended.
"Far from reassuring skeptics, Netanyahu's reliance on top secret intelligence material to prove Iran's sinister designs could not but conjure the same kind of impeccable info that misled the US to invade Iraq in the first place."
"This time, the price for Netanyahu's overconfidence, tendency to ignore doubts and dismiss criticism as well as his theatrical compulsion to cast himself in a leading role whether it helps his cause or not, may ultimately have to be paid by Israel as a whole."
| | How Trump Is Wrong, and Maybe Right, About Mueller's Questions | | | President Trump was quick to dismiss the apparent leak of almost 50 questions Special Counsel Robert Mueller wants to ask him. It might not make legal sense, but it could be good politics, suggests Barbara McQuade for the Daily Beast.
"He seems to be making the public case that the investigation is now all about obstruction of justice, and not about coordination with Russia to interfere with the election. Even this premise is false, in light of the fact that several questions relate to contacts with Russians. Nonetheless, more than half of the questions appear to relate to obstruction of justice. Trump seems to be arguing that this focus on obstruction of justice exposes the investigation as an unfounded, politically motivated scandal," McQuade writes.
"Of course, the law does not require proof of the underlying crime to make out a case for obstruction of justice because sometimes the obstruction is successful. But Trump likely is less concerned about the court of law than he is about the court of public opinion. Because he likely would face impeachment instead of criminal charges, this may be a shrewd move." | | Will Trump Stab America's Allies in the Back? | | | President Trump seems desperate to generate some feel-good headlines on North Korea. Someone needs to point out to him that the America First trade-off he would likely have to make would be terrible for America, suggests Van Jackson for Politico EU.
"Taking Trump at his word during the campaign — when he decried US allies Japan and South Korea as ungrateful free-riders — it would be reasonable to conclude that Trump is willing to forsake US allies in the region by getting Kim to agree to negotiate away his ICBMs but ultimately leave Kim with a regional nuclear strike capability," Jackson writes.
"Nuclear scholars have worried that a North Korean ICBM capability would 'decouple' the United States from South Korea — the question of whether America would trade Seattle for Seoul in a nuclear conflict is a rhetorical one. We know the answer. The irony of a nuclear deal between Kim and Trump may actually be that true decoupling will happen when North Korea retains only the ability to strike US allies but not the United States. Kim can simultaneously give a nod in the direction of denuclearization, remove the imminent threat to the US homeland posed by his ICBMs, and expand a wedge between the United States and its allies." | | No, Trump's Fire and Fury Won't Work Here | | President Trump's "fire and fury" diplomacy may – only may – have worked with North Korea. But trying to apply it to the crises in the Middle East would be folly, argues Nic Robertson for CNN Opinion. The conflicts there are even more complicated – and, unlike the Korean Peninsula, they are already in flames.
"Korea's war stalled more than six decades ago. Regional stakeholders are few and their involvement is limited," Robertson writes. "Syria, by comparison, is a young conflict. Its passions are relatively hot, the population pulverized in a deep, grinding, multi-fronted, multinational war. Blood flows freely and good will is shredded daily.
"No one seems to be looking for an exit and while in North Korea Kim calls the shots, in Syria, Russia and Iran hold sway over President Assad. Turkey also wants in on the action and Trump has no policy save smashing ISIS and holding a few red lines.
"He cannot do what he has done in Korea and threaten chaos to bring Assad and his allies to talks. Syria is already in chaos and they know he can't or won't do it."
"Yes, the [recent missile] strikes proved Trump, the UK and France have a red line they are ready to enforce. But the lesson Assad and his allies learned is that they are not in danger."
| | Team Trump Takes Aim at America's Big Renewable Resource | | Team Trump's proposal to require visa-seekers to disclose five years' worth of social media profiles, among other things, is a solution to a problem that doesn't exist, Bloomberg editorializes. And it will hurt one of America's big renewable economic resources: Tourism.
"From 2002 to 2016, the rate for terrorists getting through was 1 for every 379 million visa or status approvals, according to one analysis. The overwhelming majority of US terrorism offenders have been either born, raised and radicalized domestically, or extradited by law enforcement," Bloomberg argues.
"Meanwhile, temporary visitors are a wellspring of American economic strength. In 2016, more than 70 million arrivals spent nearly $250 billion, supporting several million jobs and generating 11 percent of exports. Foreign visitors spend far more than their domestic counterparts do: In Trump's hometown of New York City, they accounted for just one-fifth of visitors, but spent four times as much American out-of-towners did." | | | | | | |
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