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Is There a Buying Opportunity in the SPY ETF?
Author: Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 4/6/2026.
Key Points
- SPY ETF investors face an opportunity in April that is no joke: valuations are historically low, and chart signals are bullish.
- NVIDIA and AI underpin the outlook, which centers on earnings growth, acceleration, and improving forecasts.
- Oil is the biggest risk, with prices high and inflationary pressure coursing through the economy.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
Despite the risks and headwinds, the signs point to a solid entry opportunity for investors in the SPDR S&P ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). Remember that the SPY ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index, so what drives the index drives the ETF. In this case, a robust earnings outlook underpinned by AI, generational-quality valuations in leading stocks, and the potential for clearer conditions later this year are the primary drivers.
SPY Technicals Align With Trend-Following Opportunity
The SPY technicals look bullish. The read begins with the weekly chart and trading volume: trailing 12-month volume is elevated versus the prior 12 months, with a notable spike as price action declined in Q1. Price action in the first week of Q2 reflects renewed buying, producing a peak in MACD that converges with the trend. The takeaway is that the March 2026 ETF price correction was weaker than the prior correction, and volume rose in support of the market. The Stochastic oscillator also shows a strong signal, with the short-term %D line forming a double bottom and crossing over %K while %K rebounds.
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Read the free bulletin now and discover the dividend stocks to watchThe bottom line: a sufficient number of technical signals have aligned to produce a compelling trend-following signal for technical traders. One important element remains missing — the market is still below its 150-day EMA, indicating resistance from longer-term holders. That resistance, however, could dissipate quickly if other factors continue to tilt bullish.
Earnings Growth and Outlook Underpin S&P 500 and SPY Price Outlook
Earnings are the single most important factor for the S&P 500 and the SPY uptrend. When earnings grow, the index and ETF tend to move higher — and those uptrends are stronger when growth and growth forecasts are accelerating. The current consensus forecast for S&P 500 earnings growth this year is roughly 17.5%.
Not only does 17.5% represent a sequential acceleration from 2025 levels, but the pace of revisions has also picked up. Data reported by FactSet show improvement across all four quarters this year, with growth expected to accelerate from Q1 through Q3 — peaking above 20% and then holding near 20% in Q4. That trajectory is a meaningful tailwind for market sentiment, and another catalyst is at work.
The market has tended to underestimate S&P 500 earnings potential, and that margin of error widened last year. Market participants have structurally underestimated the strength of AI spending each quarter and are likely to continue doing so in 2026. That dynamic sets the index up to outperform already-robust forecasts and raises the potential for a melt-up as the year progresses.
NVIDIA (and Tech) Is the Likely Catalyst for a Broad Market Rally
There are numerous catalysts this year, but the most impactful is likely NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA). It accounts for more than 7% of the index and is central to AI. NVIDIA is expected to continue growing at a hyper-growth pace, to outperform estimates, and to issue solid guidance that could extend current trends. After several quarters of consolidation, profit-taking, and market rotation, the stock now appears undervalued relative to its growth prospects.
Trading at just under 22X its current-year earnings forecast in early April, the market is placing little premium on NVIDIA for the first time in about a decade. In this scenario, near-term upside could be in the 50% range, with the potential for much larger gains over the long term. Blue-chip tech names, including NVIDIA, have historically traded at 30X–35X earnings at cycle peaks. With NVIDIA at roughly 22X current-year earnings and at far lower multiples on longer-term forecasts, a strong, outlook-affirming report could unlock significant upside — perhaps 50% near term and several-hundred percent over time as the company grows into its expectations.
The Risk Is Oil — It’s Hot and Can Drive Inflation
The biggest risk to the market is oil. Oil prices are up significantly from their lows and are driving price spikes across the economy. Because oil is unlikely to fall substantially in the near term, investors should expect another inflation shock. The worry is that the FOMC will not only pause its rate-cut plans but could revert to a hawkish stance, increasing the risk of higher rates and a recession.
AirJoule on Commercialization Path: Sales Will Start Soon
Author: Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 4/1/2026.
Key Points
- AirJoule is on track to commercialize its technology this year, unlocking revenue streams as it disrupts the water industry.
- Applications span sectors and verticals: 2025 highlights include expanding end markets and penetration gains.
- Institutions are aggressively accumulating this stock and set the stage for a robust advance when catalysts emerge.
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The biggest hurdle for AirJoule Technologies (NASDAQ: AIRJ) and its investors is the transition to commercialization — and it appears to be a hurdle the company is prepared to clear. Fiscal Q4 results show AirJoule executing on plan and on track to commercialize its Core system later this year. The technology is being validated across multiple use cases and geographic regions, while the number of end markets and the depth of market penetration continue to grow.
AirJoule’s solution is among the most advanced water-from-air technologies available. Its systems harvest waste heat from industrial and other sources, then use that energy to extract water from the air. Use cases range from water production for arid regions to heat removal for industrial applications (e.g., data centers), water generation for cooling systems, and corrosion protection for critical infrastructure and supplies.
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Read the free bulletin now and discover the dividend stocks to watchImportantly, the systems can operate off-grid and, when connected to the grid, deliver superior efficiency and longer service lives than traditional alternatives. AirJoule systems target a 15-year lifespan—significantly longer than comparable equipment—and are designed to pay for themselves in about four years of operation.
Institutions Put a Hard Floor in AIRJ Stock
AirJoule has yet to attract broad analyst coverage, but that has not deterred institutional investors. Institutions own more than 60% of the stock and have been aggressively accumulating shares. MarketBeat data show institutional buying on a trailing-12-month (TTM) basis, ramping sequentially through 2025 and setting a record in Q1 2026. Over the TTM period the ratio is roughly $15 purchased for every $1 sold; Q1 activity accelerated to about $25 bought for each $1 sold, indicating continued confidence in the 2026 story.
A key 2026 catalyst could be the shift to commercialization. The company is advancing productization, scaling its manufacturing footprint, and cementing deployment partnerships, including water purchase agreements (WPAs). WPAs are essentially water-as-a-service contracts: AirJoule will deploy and operate systems for municipalities and industrial customers and sell the water produced. The company’s triple-filtration system delivers bottled-quality water, which strengthens the commercial case for those customers.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The three analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock a Moderate Buy and have set robust price targets. While the TTM trend showed target reductions during a reset period, that adjustment now appears complete. The consensus target implies roughly 160% upside from the critical support level, while the low-end range is more than 100%. Increasing analyst coverage and upward target revisions tied to revenue later this year are potential drivers of appreciation.
AirJoule on Tap to Disrupt Multi-Billion Water Industry
AirJoule is positioned to disrupt a multi-billion-dollar water market. Global water demand is expected to grow at a mid- to high-single-digit compound annual growth rate over the next eight to 10 years, driven by population growth, escalating water scarcity, and expanding industrial needs. Beyond data centers, sectors such as agriculture, energy production, manufacturing, and recycling all contribute to rising demand. For investors, that suggests the potential for rapid revenue growth after commercial launch and a relatively quick path to profitability.
Analysts tracking AIRJ project profitability by 2028. Given the company’s 2025 execution and an expected commercial launch later this year, that forecast is likely conservative. If AirJoule continues executing, it should have the capital runway to reach commercialization without resorting to significant debt or dilutive financing, removing a major market overhang.
The technical setup is also encouraging. The stock is trading near long-term lows but is extremely oversold, institutions are accumulating, and catalysts lie ahead. The most likely near-term path is sideways trading for a quarter or so, followed by a sharper move higher as commercialization begins to translate into revenue.
Market support appears to sit near $2.60 and is unlikely to be breached absent material execution delays. The primary risk remains the company’s transition from a start-up to an operating business, but that risk is mitigated by development and manufacturing partnerships with GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV), BASF (OTCMKTS: BASFY), and Carrier Global (NYSE: CARR), which provide development assistance and manufacturing capabilities.
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