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Qualcomm's Analysts Are Throwing in the Towel—Time to Be Brave?
Reported by Sam Quirke. Article Posted: 2/18/2026.
Key Points
- Qualcomm has fallen from early-January levels above $180 to around $140, erasing two years of gains and returning to 2020 levels.
- A wave of downgrades and reduced price targets suggests confidence is cracking across Wall Street.
- But with the stock’s RSI flashing extremely oversold conditions and support forming near $135, contrarians are beginning to circle.
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Despite trading above $180 in the first week of January, shares of tech titan Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) now sit just above $140. The stock has erased roughly two years of gains and is back near its 2020 price. For long-term holders, it has been a frustrating and bruising stretch.
Making matters worse, the narrative has weakened in recent weeks. Less-than-ideal guidance in the company's Q1 results earlier this month reinforced concerns about the smartphone cycle and Qualcomm's ability to drive meaningful growth beyond it. Investors who have been burned by prior false starts appear to have finally lost patience.
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What compounds the pain for Qualcomm right now is that analysts who once largely ignored the name are beginning to rate it more cautiously.
Still, as we recently highlighted, this setup can attract contrarians — and a buy-the-dip opportunity may be forming. Let's take a closer look.
The Bears Are Growing Louder
The sell side's tone has shifted noticeably. Daiwa Securities Group cut its rating on Qualcomm from Outperform to Neutral last week, Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Underweight rating earlier this month, and Wells Fargo has reiterated a cautious stance. Some reduced price targets now reach the low $130s, implying potential further downside from current levels.
The bearish case is straightforward: Qualcomm may look inexpensive, but cheap stocks can stay that way for extended periods if growth disappoints. Many analysts argue the stock already reflects muted expectations, and if the smartphone cycle stays subdued or earnings miss again, selling pressure could persist.
That said, the analyst community is divided. A number of firms have continued to rate the stock as a Buy or equivalent in recent weeks, underscoring how split sentiment has become.
Price Action Suggests a Low May Be Forming
Beyond headlines, the stock's price action and technical setup provide a useful read on near-term momentum. Qualcomm's relative strength index (RSI) is flashing deeply oversold conditions, signaling unusually heavy selling — readings that historically do not persist for long.
Importantly, the stock has found support since the sharp post-earnings drop in early February. After several extended down stretches, the past week has seen a string of green sessions. That subtle shift may indicate the bears are beginning to run out of steam.
The $135 area has held as support so far and now looks like a key line in the sand. If that level continues to hold and price consolidates instead of breaking down, the technical picture could flip from breakdown to stabilization. Given the extreme oversold readings, it might not take much to trigger a recovery rally.
The Contrarian Case Is Worth Exploring
Not all analysts have given up. DZ Bank upgraded the stock to Strong Buy last week, Argus reiterated its Buy rating earlier this month, and Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight stance — with bullish price targets reaching roughly $200.
From current levels, that implies potential upside of around 40%. Combined with oversold technicals and stabilizing price action, that risk/reward is attractive to contrarian investors. They don't need Qualcomm to become a market darling immediately; they just need the decline to stop. Looking at the chart over the past week, that process appears to be starting.
Weighing the Opportunity
Qualcomm is likely to remain a frustrating investment for at least a while. Cyclical headwinds and a recurring difficulty in sustaining momentum have repeatedly eroded confidence. However, extreme negativity can create opportunities when sentiment is this oversold.
If the stock holds above $135 and continues to stabilize, a cautiously bullish stance becomes more sensible. If that level fails, the bears may still have another leg down. Investors considering a contrarian entry should weigh the downside risk, employ appropriate position sizing, and match exposure to a time horizon that allows for a potential recovery.
Qualcomm's Sudden Reversal Signal Could Catch the Bears Offside
Reported by Sam Quirke. Article Posted: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- After a brutal 30% slide that erased nearly two years of gains, Qualcomm is showing early signs of stabilization.
- A bullish MACD crossover deep below zero suggests downside momentum may be exhausting itself.
- With fresh analyst upgrades starting to land and price action firming above recent lows, a base is starting to take shape.
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After collapsing nearly 30% between the first week of January and the first week of February, tech giant Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) now trades around $145. That selloff effectively dragged the stock back to 2020 levels, making for a rough start to the year for investors.
The primary catalyst for the decline was the company's weak forward guidance in its first report of the year, which accelerated selling in what had already been a pressured name.
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That disappointment intensified selling in a stock that has often frustrated investors despite consistently topping earnings and revenue expectations.
Following the selloff, Qualcomm's relative strength index (RSI) plunged toward multi-year lows, sentiment collapsed, and many analysts began throwing in the towel.
For a company central to the semiconductor ecosystem, the capitulation felt definitive. Yet over the past fortnight, something has shifted that's prompting investors to ask whether the worst of the selling is already behind them. Let's take a closer look.
A MACD Signal That Matters
In mid-February, Qualcomm's moving average convergence/divergence indicator (MACD) registered a bullish crossover while still deeply below the zero line. That detail matters: a bullish MACD crossover above zero often just confirms existing strength, whereas a crossover from below zero tends to indicate downside momentum has reached an extreme and is beginning to unwind.
After the bears dominated through January and early February — with every bounce quickly sold into — a string of consecutive green sessions now suggests short-term control may be tilting back toward the bulls, especially given the MACD crossover.
The last time Qualcomm printed a similar bullish MACD crossover from deep below zero was last April, after the stock had also fallen roughly 30%. That signal marked a low that preceded a multi-month rally of about 70%. For investors who like a comeback story, it's a compelling setup.
Price Action Is Quietly Improving
Importantly, the MACD signal isn't occurring in isolation. Price action is beginning to cooperate: the bears have been unable to push the stock below the immediate post-earnings low they set, and the shares have turned northward. This doesn't mean the downtrend is definitively broken, but the relentless selling pressure has eased.
For a stock that surrendered two years of gains in a matter of weeks, stabilization is notable. When a deeply oversold name rallies after bad news instead of selling off further, it often signals that the worst-case scenario may already be priced in.
Analysts Are Starting to Shift
The technical improvement has been accompanied by a subtle change in tone from Wall Street. Earlier this year many analysts downgraded Qualcomm or trimmed price targets following the weak guidance.
That wave of caution appears to be softening in step with the stabilizing price action and bullish indicators.
This week, Wells Fargo lifted its rating from Underweight to Equal Weight, while Loop Capital upgraded Qualcomm to a full Buy. Both firms argued that near-term headwinds are beginning to ease and that the company's broader diversification strategy strengthens its longer-term outlook.
Loop Capital and Wells Fargo each set fresh price targets of $185, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels and adding to the sense that Qualcomm could be a contender for a meaningful comeback rally.
What Needs to Happen Next
For this early reversal to evolve into something more durable, Qualcomm needs to consolidate recent gains and begin forming a base around $150.
That level is psychologically important and has been a key battleground in the past. If the stock can hold above the recent lows and start carving out higher lows, investor confidence should rebuild. A decisive break below $130, however, would likely invite renewed selling.
Qualcomm still faces real headwinds: handset demand uncertainty remains, and management must restore credibility around forward growth. But markets often turn before fundamentals visibly improve. The bullish MACD crossover deep below zero suggests downside momentum may have already peaked.
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