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The Last 2 Times Amazon's RSI Did This, the Stock Rallied 60%
Authored by Sam Quirke. Posted: 2/13/2026.
Key Points
- Amazon has slid roughly 20% from last year’s all-time high, with the selloff accelerating after last week’s earnings report.
- The stock’s RSI has now dipped below 30, a rare occurrence that previously preceded big recovery rallies.
- With analysts still overwhelmingly bullish and price targets ranging north of $300, the risk/reward profile is looking quite attractive.
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Having started the year near $250, tech titan Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) is currently trading around $210.
A choppy January turned into a bruising start to February after the company reported a rare earnings miss last week and unveiled a sharply higher capital expenditure forecast that rattled investors.
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The stock gapped down following the report and has shown few signs of wanting to reclaim lost ground. What was meant to be a strong start to the year has instead become investors' first confidence test of 2026.
The stock is now roughly 20% below its November all-time high, with momentum clearly favoring the bears.
Yet beneath the surface, something interesting is happening. Because selling has overwhelmed buying, Amazon's relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 30, putting the stock into extremely oversold territory. That doesn't happen often, but history suggests it's worth paying attention when it does.
An Interesting Pattern
The last time Amazon's RSI dipped below 30 was in April 2025. The stock subsequently rallied roughly 60% from that low. Before that, the previous sub-30 reading occurred in the summer of 2024 and was also followed by a powerful rebound of about 60%.
That doesn't mean we're guaranteed a repeat this time, but it does suggest a pattern worth watching. When sentiment around Amazon becomes this washed out, it has tended to precede sizable upside rather than further downside.
Why This Setup Could Rhyme With the Past
As regular readers will know, there are many reasons to be bullish on Amazon's prospects beyond this technical setup. For one, the current weakness is driven more by anxiety about spending than by any fundamental breakdown in the business model.
Investors were spooked not just by the minor earnings miss, but also by the scale of capital expenditure tied to Amazon's AI ambitions. In a market that has grown more sensitive to spending discipline, that headline carried extra weight.
However, the company's fundamentals remain largely intact. AWS growth, for example, remains solid, and Amazon's retail business continues to perform. A single earnings miss, especially one measured in single-digit pennies, does not erase that.
Analysts Are Still Screaming Buy, Buy, Buy
Just as importantly, analyst support has barely wavered. Since the report, there has been near-unanimous backing of the stock as a Buy, with firms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Argus setting new price targets of $300 or higher. From current levels, that implies more than 40% upside.
That may not match the roughly 60% surge seen after the prior RSI washouts, but it still represents a sizable potential gain and highlights the opportunity taking shape right now.
What Could Derail the Bounce Thesis
The obvious risk is that this time is different. If the company's capital spending continues to balloon without visible returns, or if broader tech sentiment deteriorates further, oversold conditions alone will not drive a recovery. A stock can remain oversold longer than investors expect, regardless of fundamentals or analyst support.
There is also the technical reality that Amazon's recent attempts to rally have been underwhelming. While the stock showed signs of being snapped up off its post-earnings lows on Feb. 6, the following trading days produced little follow-through.
Watching the Ticker
For now, it's all about how the stock behaves in the short term. With tech stocks in general under pressure, it may be unrealistic to expect an immediate snapback in Amazon shares. However, if selling pressure fades and buyers step back in, the setup could become compelling.
AEHR's +25% Spike: Latest AI Hyperscaler Order Improves Outlook
Submitted by Leo Miller. Article Published: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- Aehr Test Systems just saw its shares post another big up-move, as the small company put out a promising new press release.
- The firm is now providing testing systems for not one, but two chips developed by a leading hyperscaler.
- While the company sees potential for orders to expand greatly, one key insider is selling the stock.
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Small-cap semiconductor stock Aehr Test Systems (NASDAQ: AEHR) just secured a significant win. On Feb. 11, AEHR jumped more than 26% after the company announced a key order.
The press release revealed that Aehr had received an order for its Sonoma systems from a leading hyperscale customer — a meaningful step as the company pushes to grow Sonoma sales. Below are the details of the announcement and why it improves Aehr's outlook.
AEHR's Sonoma System Receives Order for Next-Gen AI ASIC Testing
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Aehr's Sonoma systems subject semiconductor components to stressful conditions, exposing them to high voltages and temperatures. That allows companies using AI chips to screen for defects and keep subpar hardware out of their data centers, while validating long-term chip reliability.
Aehr said an existing customer placed an initial order to use Sonoma to test its next-generation application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). ASICs are custom-designed chips that firms such as Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) co-develop with companies like Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) to run specific AI workloads.
Previously, Aehr had discussed this customer's plans to introduce higher-powered AI ASICs and said it was developing modules to test those devices. The company clarified that, "until now, Aehr had not officially been awarded the production burn-in business for this new device." Aehr expects to deliver the Sonoma systems related to this win in the summer of 2026.
"Large Expansion" of Sonoma Orders Is On the Table
Aehr also discussed the customer's current-generation AI ASIC — the device the customer is now or will soon deploy in data centers — and said production of that device is ramping up. The customer is forecasting a "very large expansion of Sonoma system purchases for that device in the second half of calendar 2026 and continuing into 2027." Aehr expects orders for the current-generation device to arrive alongside orders tied to the next-generation device.
This wording is stronger than in past announcements, signaling that the company's confidence in generating meaningful Sonoma sales is shifting from aspirational to more tangible. The customer's existing use of Sonoma on its current-generation ASIC and the decision to extend Sonoma testing to the next-generation device further reinforces confidence in Aehr's technology and the prospect of a sustained relationship.
Is Aehr's Latest Insider Sale a Red Flag Amid Feb. 11 Spike?
A recent insider trade at Aehr is worth noting. On Feb. 13, two days after the announcement, Rhea Posedel sold more than $420,000 worth of shares. Posedel is Aehr's founder, former CEO, and current chairman of the board. The sale was not made under a 10b5-1 plan, which indicates it was discretionary.
The timing and the fact that a senior stakeholder executed the sale could raise questions about the sustainability of the stock's recent gain. That said, Posedel sold only about 14,000 shares — roughly 2.6% of his holdings — and still retains approximately 528,000 shares. Maintaining the vast majority of his stake suggests he remains largely confident in Aehr's longer-term prospects.
AEHR: A High-Volatility Play on the AI Boom
Aehr's outlook appears to be improving. Sonoma machines address a clear need for companies investing heavily in AI processors: ensuring deployed hardware is reliable. The momentum behind Sonoma increases visibility for AI-driven revenue and reduces uncertainty around the company's growth prospects.
Risks remain. Aehr is currently heavily dependent on this one customer, and if that relationship weakens it could be materially damaging. The company has said it received Sonoma orders from multiple customers in the past, but the "very large expansion" of orders it described has not yet been secured and could still fail to materialize.
Aehr's stock trades with high volatility: shares plunged nearly 18% on Feb. 12, a day after the spike, underscoring investor skepticism. With improving but still-developing news flow, investors should conduct their own research and consider the risks before taking a position in AEHR.
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