Dear Fellow Investor,
Last Friday, gold crashed 17% in 48 hours.
$5,608 to below $4,700.
Silver dropped 31%. The worst day since 1980.
The media called it "profit-taking."
I call it what it is: a coordinated ambush.
The trigger? Kevin Warsh named Fed Chair. A known hawk. A dollar defender.
Within hours, sell orders flooded the paper market.
The dollar spiked.
Retail investors panicked.
But here's what they didn't show you.
While Western traders dumped paper contracts, Chinese buyers lined up in Shenzhen to buy physical gold.
The paper market says "sell." The physical market says "buy."
One of them is lying.
We've seen this movie before. In 1980. In 2020. Every time, paper holders got crushed. Mining shareholders made fortunes.
The Cartel just fired what may be their last shot.
I've found the one stock positioned to capture this wealth transfer.
See Why March 31st Changes Everything & Get The Name & Ticker Here >>>
"The Buck Stops Here,"
Dylan Jovine, CEO & Founder
Behind the Markets
Is Chipotle's 2026 Playbook the Secret Sauce for a Reversal?
By Thomas Hughes. First Published: 2/4/2026.
At a Glance
- Chipotle Mexican Grill is in the midst of a major turnaround as it invests in its next chapter of growth.
- Institutions and analysts set a price floor in late 2025, which is still in effect in early 2026.
- Cash flow and capital returns are safe in 2026.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) faces hurdles but appears on track to sustain and accelerate growth, setting its stock up for a major reversal. Key takeaways from the Q4 release and conference call include the confident tone from CEO Scott Boatwright and the company's 2026 strategy.
Plans call for increased investment in technology, back-of-house operations, menu development, and innovation, alongside faster store expansion. Boatwright intends to open more restaurants than last year, and management expects the International segment to grow rapidly — including doubling its footprint in the Middle East and expanding in high-growth markets such as Mexico, Singapore, and South Korea. If management executes, international growth could outpace domestic and eventually become a larger portion of revenue as the company scales.
Valuation, Analysts, Institutions, and Charts Reveal a Bottom for CMG Stock
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Chipotle's Q4 results and guidance didn't spark a rally — far from it — but the post-release price dip is less alarming than it appears. The decline was partly driven by analysts trimming targets, yet the stock is trading at what looks like deep-value levels and is unlikely to fall far from here. A rebound from these levels is more probable.
The stock currently trades at about 32x trailing earnings and roughly 8x the projected 2035 EPS. If execution matches those long-range forecasts, shares could be higher by 200% to 300% by then, depending on the multiple investors apply.
The current analyst price target range is $35 to $45, implying fair value around $40. Trading in the mid-$30s, CMG appears near a price floor with roughly 15% upside versus the consensus. Institutional activity supports that view: institutions bought on balance through 2025 and continued the trend into early 2026, buying roughly $2 for every $1 sold.
Analysts rate the stock a Moderate Buy, citing brand strength, the value proposition, and the cautious tone of management's guidance.
Strong Quarter Overshadowed by Weak Guidance, But …
Chipotle delivered a solid quarter, reporting $2.98 billion in revenue, up 4.9% year-over-year. Comparable sales declined 2.5%, but new restaurant openings partially offset that weakness, positioning the company for leveraged recovery if consumer trends improve. Margins held up reasonably well: restaurant-level margin was down about 140 basis points and operating margin down about 50 basis points — broadly in line with expectations and sufficient to maintain financial stability. Diluted EPS was $0.25, roughly a 4% year-over-year increase, though management's conservative guidance drew the most attention.
The 2026 outlook anticipates comp improvement but only enough to keep results near 2025's pace, with system growth driven largely by store openings. Management described the guidance as intentionally cautious given economic uncertainty; the market's expectation is that Chipotle will likely outperform it — the question is by how much.
Chipotle's cash flow and balance sheet support continued execution of the strategy and returning capital to shareholders regardless of near-term consumer behavior. Q4 highlights include total liabilities at roughly 2x equity, no unsecured debt, and a 3.5% year-over-year reduction in average quarterly share count. Share count reduction is expected to continue in 2026 and is another tailwind for long-term per-share value.
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