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Crypto 101
2026 Food Inflation Outlook: This ETF Could Outperform
Authored by Jordan Chussler. Posted: 2/21/2026.
Key Points
- With a loss of more than 6%, consumer discretionary stocks have performed the worst over the past month.
- But the fast food and quick service restaurant market is expected to grow at a 14.8% CAGR through 2033.
- As dining out is forecast to get nearly 5% more costly in 2026, the EATZ ETF provides a basket of fast food and casual dining restaurants that are poised to take advantage.
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Consumer discretionary stocks haven't fared well so far in 2026. After finishing with a 6% gain last year—good for the third worst performance among the S&P 500's 11 sectors—the group has posted a 2.7% year-to-date (YTD) loss, which is also third from the bottom.
Things have looked even bleaker over the past month, during which the consumer discretionary sector lost 6.46%—dead last in the S&P 500. But help could arrive later this year from an unlikely source: food inflation.
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Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its Food Price Outlook for 2026. While the cost of some items is expected to ease, most are forecast to rise. One notable takeaway: prices for food away from home (i.e., dining out) are expected to increase by nearly 5%.
That's good news for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that provides basket exposure to several fast-food and fast-casual dining chains.
Food Inflation Is Not Going Away
If food costs felt high in 2025, they may rise further in 2026. Products like pork and eggs are expected to decline, but beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.4% in 2026. That rise will likely affect people who dine out more than grocery shoppers.
Food-at-home prices are projected to increase about 1.7%, while food-away-from-home prices are projected to climb roughly 4.6%. That may dissuade some consumers from dining out. Yet many restaurant companies that saw share-price weakness in 2025 still reported top-line growth despite shifting consumer sentiment.
Take Chipotle (NYSE: CMG). Despite a battered share price last year, the company posted year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth—5.41% in 2025, down from prior years—even as the stock fell more than 30%. From 2022 to 2024, Chipotle averaged about 14.45% YOY revenue growth.
Although inflation remains elevated, it is lower than the 41-year high reached in 2022, when food prices rose 9.9% (BLS). Thus, one could argue that Chipotle's slower revenue growth last year was an outlier and that results could improve even if annual food-price inflation moderates.
Consumers may lament the loss of dollar menus, but many have grudgingly accepted $12 burgers, $15 burritos, and $20 pizzas.
Industry consultancy Grand View Research estimates the global fast-food and quick-service restaurant market at more than $296 billion in 2025, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.8% from 2026 through 2033, when the market could exceed $885 billion.
That outlook bodes well for one ETF in particular.
Order Up Exposure With the EATZ ETF
Since its launch on April 20, 2021, the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) has offered investors focused exposure to the fast-food and quick-service restaurant sector. The actively managed fund has a 0.99% expense ratio, which is partially offset by a 0.48% dividend yield (about $0.13 per share annually).
The ETF's holdings, by weight, include Nathan's Famous (NASDAQ: NATH), Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Chipotle, The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE), El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO), Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH), Domino's (NASDAQ: DPZ), DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH), Wingstop (NASDAQ: WING), and others.
Some of those stocks have struggled over the past year, but in many cases that appears to be an aberration rather than a new normal. For example, when Chipotle's revenue growth slowed during the pandemic year 2020—dropping to about 7.13%—it rebounded strongly the following year, with growth topping 26%.
Last year several companies in the space reported strong results: Chipotle recorded record net income, and so did Dutch Bros and Darden Restaurants (owner of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse), as well as Texas Roadhouse. Domino's, which reports earnings on Feb. 23, is on pace to set record revenue, as are The Cheesecake Factory and DoorDash when they next report.
The fund carries an aggregate Moderate Buy rating but also has a notable short interest of nearly 24%—roughly 21,000 of the approximately 90,000 shares outstanding. Investors should also consider liquidity: EATZ's average daily trading volume is about 2,240 shares.
For investors who believe in the long-term prospects of the global fast-food and quick-service restaurant market, the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF could serve as your portfolio's all-you-can-eat buffet.
Zillow's 3-Day Rally Could Mean More Than You Think
Authored by Sam Quirke. Posted: 2/21/2026.
Key Points
- Zillow has fallen back to 2014 price levels after a brutal multi-year slide, erasing nearly two years of gains.
- The stock has just logged three consecutive up days for the first time in weeks, while the RSI is at one of its lowest levels in more than a decade.
- Revenue growth, margin expansion, and a fresh Overweight rating with more than 50% upside suggest pessimism may be overdone.
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After months of relentless selling, shares of Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ: ZG) have quietly done something they hadn't managed in weeks: the stock posted three straight days of gains. That may not sound dramatic, but after a nearly 50% collapse and extreme bearish sentiment, it's notable.
Shares now trade around $45—roughly where they were in 2014—with nearly two years of gains erased over the past five months. A sluggish housing market, driven by elevated mortgage rates, and a weak report last week have hurt the stock. Yet with sentiment near rock bottom and price action showing signs of stabilizing, could this run of green days be the start of something?
The Fundamentals Don’t Match the Fear
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The latest earnings report may have accelerated the decline, but it didn't start it—Zillow shares have been under pressure since September. Still, last week's results were not disastrous. Earnings missed by a few cents, but revenue beat expectations and rose 18% year-over-year.
Adjusted EBITDA rose year-over-year and margins expanded, helping the company deliver full-year profitability. The chart might not look great, but this wasn't the report you'd expect from a business in terminal decline.
One standout from the quarter was strength in rentals. That segment delivered robust growth—particularly in multifamily—and management expects expansion to continue into next year. Rentals have become a critical pillar of Zillow's diversification strategy.
Mortgage revenue also expanded meaningfully, reinforcing Zillow's evolution into an integrated ecosystem spanning buying, selling, renting, and financing. The company is increasingly focused on capturing value across the entire moving journey rather than relying solely on listing fees.
Investor Worries May Be Overblown
Part of the recent plunge reflects anxiety around AI disruption and private listing networks. Many investors fear AI-powered housing portals could erode Zillow's position. This concern isn't unique to Zillow—it affects the wider tech space as well.
But consumer behavior suggests Zillow is likely to remain the default destination for home search for the foreseeable future. Competitors may be spending aggressively to gain share, but they've had limited success so far.
Housing at a Cyclical Low
That said, Zillow still faces an uphill battle in the near term. The broader U.S. housing market remains near a cyclical trough due to elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints. Transaction volumes are subdued, creating a challenging backdrop for any real estate-linked platform.
However, cyclical troughs can create opportunities for patient investors. When transactions normalize and the market rebounds, Zillow's diversified revenue base and improving margins should position it well. At current price levels, the market appears to be pricing in prolonged stagnation, which may prove overly pessimistic.
Technicals and Analyst Support Align
Technically, the stock is deeply oversold, which bolsters the case for buying a dip. Zillow's relative strength index (RSI) sits around 24—its lowest reading in more than a decade—signaling extreme selling pressure that rarely persists indefinitely without at least a relief rally.
While this week's three-day run doesn't confirm a full reversal, it suggests selling pressure may be starting to exhaust itself. When multi-year lows coincide with extreme oversold readings and improving price action, contrarian investors take notice.
Analysts are noticing too. Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating last week and set a $70 price target, implying more than 50% potential upside from current levels.
Is This a Buy Signal?
Any stock exiting a 50% slide carries significant risk, and Zillow is no different. If mortgage rates remain elevated and housing stays stagnant, earnings could remain pressured. The market's reaction to last week's miss and management's cautious guidance suggests investors will be particularly sensitive to any further signs of slowing momentum.
But for investors willing to tolerate that risk, the opportunity may be compelling. A combination of improving price action, extremely oversold technicals, continued revenue growth, and analyst upside creates a persuasive case. Expectations are low, sentiment is washed out, and the stock sits near decade-old price levels.
Three consecutive up days don't prove the bottom is in. But after a 50% slide, they may be one sign that the market is starting to look at Zillow with fresh eyes.
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