Today: CFP predictions, injury intel, updated portal rankings, and Oklahoma's improbable path.

~9.5 minute read (2,061 words)

If this email was forwarded to you, please subscribe.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

On3's experts predict the College Football Playoff first round

With the College Football Playoff set to kick off, On3's national insiders have made their picks on the matchups that will define the opening round. From blue-blood rematches to underdogs trying to crash the party, the first slate offers no shortage of intrigue.

Here's how Ari Wasserman, JD PicKell, and Andy Staples see the first round shaking out. Wasserman's full bracket can be viewed here, while PicKell's is here.

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Ari Wasserman – Alabama over Oklahoma: Wasserman expects Alabama to flip the script after losing twice to Oklahoma in the past two seasons. With Oklahoma's offensive limitations, he sees the Crimson Tide finding enough answers to advance.

JD PicKell – Alabama over Oklahoma: PicKell sides with Alabama, pointing to motivation after recent losses and believing Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer will need a major jump for the Sooners to pull the upset.

Andy Staples – Alabama over Oklahoma: Staples views the game as close to a pick-em but ultimately trusts Alabama, even with questions about its run game against an aggressive Oklahoma defense.

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon

Ari Wasserman – Oregon over James Madison: Ari credits James Madison's story but sees no path to an upset at Autzen Stadium against a more complete Oregon team.

JD PicKell – Oregon over James Madison: PicKell calls this a straightforward pick, noting Oregon's season-long dominance and the steep jump in competition for the Dukes.

Andy Staples – Oregon over James Madison: Staples points to Oregon's improving health and elite roster, expecting the Ducks to control the game and cover comfortably.

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss

Ari Wasserman – Ole Miss over Tulane: Wasserman expects a repeat of Ole Miss' regular-season blowout, with the Rebels again overwhelming Tulane at home."

JD PicKell – Ole Miss over Tulane: PicKell sees little reason to expect a different result after Ole Miss dominated the first meeting earlier this season.

Andy Staples – Ole Miss over Tulane: Staples highlights Ole Miss' defensive performance in the earlier matchup and anticipates another smothering effort in the rematch. Andy is begging for a close game here.

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M

Ari Wasserman – Miami over Texas A&M: Wasserman calls this the most intriguing matchup of the round and believes Miami's late-season momentum carries it to a road win.

JD PicKell – Texas A&M over Miami: PicKell takes the Aggies at home, citing matchup advantages and the challenge Miami's quarterback will face against an elite defense.

Andy Staples – Texas A&M over Miami: Staples agrees, emphasizing Kyle Field's environment and Texas A&M's explosive skill players, projecting the Aggies to win and cover.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

College Football Playoff Injury Report: CFP first round updates

Injuries remain a constant variable as the College Football Playoff begins. Each week brings new developments, and On3's team of Chris Low, Brett McMurphy, and Pete Nakos continues to track the most important availability updates as teams prepare for the first round. This story will be updated throughout the opening round of the College Football Playoff.

🐘 Alabama

Alabama is expected to have running back Jam Miller available after he missed the SEC championship game, providing a boost to the backfield. However, the Crimson Tide will be without starting defensive lineman LT Overton, who also missed the SEC title game with what head coach Kalen DeBoer described as an illness or medical condition. Tight ends Josh Cuevas and Danny Lewis are both expected to be available Friday night.

⭕️ Oklahoma

One of the biggest injury developments this week is the return of EDGE R Mason Thomas, who is back after missing the entire month of November. His availability adds a significant boost to Oklahoma's pass rush entering the matchup. Offensive lineman Jake Maikkula is viewed as doubtful and is currently not expected to be available.

🙌 Miami

Miami defensive back Keionte Scott is listed as probable and is expected to play after practicing throughout the week. Scott missed the final three games of the regular season but has continued to make progress. Defensive back Damari Brown is listed as questionable.

👍 Texas A&M

Texas A&M is monitoring the status of star running back Le'Veon Moss, who is listed as questionable after missing the final six games of the regular season with a left ankle injury. Sources told On3 he is considered a game-time decision after returning to practice. Linebacker Scooby Williams and safety Bryce Anderson are off the injury report and expected to be full participants.

🌊 Tulane

Tulane wide receiver Bryce Bohanon is expected to warm up and test his availability in pregame, sources told On3. The hope is that Bohanon, who has 31 catches for 417 yards this season, will be able to play against Ole Miss. Safety Jack Tchienchou is expected to be available.

🦈 Ole Miss

Ole Miss cornerback Antonio Kite is listed as questionable entering the first round. Starting tight end Dae'Quan Wright is expected to play and is listed as probable after recording 30 receptions for 489 yards during the regular season.

👑 James Madison

JMU defensive lineman Immanuel Bush is listed as probable ahead of Saturday's game at Oregon. The 6-foot-1, 348-pound lineman has three sacks this season and is expected to be available.

🦆 Oregon

Oregon has the chance to get closer to full strength on offense. Wide receivers Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr., and Evan Stewart are all listed as questionable and are expected to be game-time decisions. Defensive back Trey McNutt has returned to practice and is also listed as questionable.

Get all the latest CFP injury intel.

TRANSFER PORTAL

Top 10 players expected to enter NCAA Transfer Portal

Sam Leavitt, Chaz Coleman, Dylan Raiola, DJ Lagway

While the NCAA transfer portal window does not officially open until Jan. 2, several players have already announced plans to enter. On3 is tracking the top names expected to hit the market next month, with the quarterback position once again leading the way.

Multiple high-profile passers are preparing to transfer, headlined by Arizona State's Sam Leavitt, who ranks as the No. 1 player in the On3 Industry Transfer Portal Rankings. Here are the Top 10 players expected to enter the transfer portal, according to On3.

1. Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State

Leavitt enters as the top-ranked player after helping Arizona State win the Big 12. He threw for 1,628 yards and 10 touchdowns in seven games this season before an injury ended his year, following a 2024 campaign with nearly 3,300 total yards.

2. Chaz Coleman, EDGE, Penn State

Coleman is expected to transfer after one season at Penn State. A True Freshman Midseason All-American, he totaled eight tackles, three tackles for loss, one sack, and two fumble recoveries.

3. Drew Mestemaker, QB, North Texas

The nation's passing yards leader, Mestemaker threw for 4,291 yards and 31 touchdowns while leading North Texas to the AAC title game. He also won the Burlsworth Trophy.

4. Brendan Sorsby, QB, Cincinnati

Sorsby ranked among the Big 12 leaders with 2,800 passing yards and 27 touchdowns in 2025. He became an immediate contributor after transferring from Indiana.

5. Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska

A former five-star recruit, Raiola completed 72.4% of his passes for 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns in nine games before a season-ending injury.

6. DJ Lagway, QB, Florida

Lagway finished his sophomore season with 2,264 passing yards and 16 touchdowns. Despite injuries and inconsistency, he remains one of the most recognizable names in the portal.

7. Mateen Ibirogba, DL, Wake Forest

Ibirogba became a key defensive contributor in 2025, totaling 21 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and two sacks after redshirting the previous season.

8. Carius Curne, IOL, LSU

Curne started five games as a true freshman and is expected to be one of the top interior offensive linemen available in the portal.

9. Nick Marsh, WR, Michigan State

Marsh totaled 100 receptions for 1,311 yards and nine touchdowns in two seasons, including multiple 100-yard games as a freshman.

10. Jay Crawford, CB, Auburn

Crawford, the top-ranked cornerback expected to enter, recorded 30 tackles, two interceptions, and 11 passes defended over two seasons.

See the full Industry Transfer Portal rankings.

🚨Headlines

NCAA FOOTBALL

Oklahoma's Brent Venables stood on a razor's edge eight weeks ago; now he has the Sooners where they need to be

There was a point this season when Oklahoma hosting a College Football Playoff game felt almost impossible. Not unrealistic. Impossible. The kind of idea you dismiss quickly because too much would have to go right and too much had already gone wrong.

That feeling did not come when Lincoln Riley left for USC after the 2021 season. It did not come last year, when injuries wiped out Oklahoma's top receivers and exposed a thin offensive line. It came eight weeks ago.

That reality makes Friday night remarkable. Oklahoma will host Alabama in a first-round CFP game, a turnaround that speaks to how fast fortunes shift in college football and to the steadiness of Brent Venables. While the noise around him grew louder, Venables stayed focused and guided the Sooners back to the standard Oklahoma expects. Now he faces a familiar opponent, one he has beaten twice in the last 13 months.

Venables enters the game with job security. The only coaching intrigue surrounding the matchup is whether Michigan might make a move toward Alabama's Kalen DeBoer, who has said he plans to stay in Tuscaloosa. Venables, meanwhile, has endured a season that tested him in ways few Oklahoma coaches experience.

Less than two months ago, the ground beneath him felt unstable. On Oct. 28, Oklahoma was 6-2 and reeling from losses to Texas and Ole Miss. Trips to Tennessee and Alabama loomed. Around the sport, firings piled up. Brian Kelly was gone at LSU. Billy Napier was gone at Florida. James Franklin was gone at Penn State. It was not difficult to imagine Oklahoma slipping to 6-4 and Venables coaching for his future.

When asked about the climate during his weekly press conference, Venables spoke broadly about emotion and anxiety in the sport. Berry Tramel followed with the question every Oklahoma fan was asking about Venables' standing and the expectations above him. Venables, uncharacteristically brief, deflected and emphasized support and communication.

The concern was understandable. Oklahoma had gone 5-7 the previous season. Anything worse than 8-4 this year was unacceptable. At the same time, the program was changing structurally. Athletic director Joe Castiglione had announced plans to step down. Randall Stephenson was leading the search for a successor and had helped install Jim Nagy as general manager, a new model that placed the GM alongside the head coach rather than beneath him.

The safety net existed. What followed changed everything.

At Tennessee, with the Sooners trailing, R Mason Thomas forced a fumble and returned it for a touchdown, igniting a 33-27 win fueled by four long field goals from Tate Sandell. Two weeks later at Alabama, Eli Bowen's 87-yard interception return for a touchdown propelled a 23-21 victory. Oklahoma was suddenly 8-2 and firmly in the playoff picture.

At Oklahoma, mediocrity is never tolerated. Only Ohio State has been more consistently excellent. If Venables had failed to deliver, change would have followed. Instead, he steadied the program and pulled it back from the edge.

"That's life. That's being the coach at Oklahoma," Venables said this week. He credits his players and staff, but his imprint is undeniable. After Riley left, Venables rebuilt. Now Oklahoma is climbing again, back in the tournament it demands to reach, with a chance to take another step Friday night.

Read the full story from Andy Staples.

TRIVIA

Now here's a guy...

Below, you'll find 3 facts about a random college football player. You'll try to guess who the player is based on the facts. Let's go.

I became the first true freshman to start at quarterback for Georgia Tech in more than 20 years when I opened the 2003 season against BYU.
Over my career, I threw for more than 8,100 yards and accounted for nearly 9,600 total yards of offense, finishing top three all-time at my school in passing yards and second in touchdown passes and total offense.
I was named ACC Rookie of the Year and later earned bowl MVP honors, helped my team win three straight seven-win seasons and an ACC Coastal title, but my college career ended abruptly after the 2006 season.

Answer at the bottom.

SHAREWORTHY