World News: The Daily Money: Can your underwear predict a recession?

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Thursday, July 7

Good morning and happy Thursday, Daily Money readers. It's Jayme Deerwester, back with you.

Not quite ready to think about back-to-school shopping yet? Well, given that it's only July 7, we can hardly blame you. But once you are, Target has your back. On Wednesday, the retailer announced a variety of back-to-school events and will provide up to 20% in discounts for college students and up to 15% for teachers.

Among the deals:

•	A bigger discount for college students who use its Target Circle rewards program. Students can get 20% off a one-time purchase any time between July 3 and Sept. 3.
•	An extended teacher prep event providing teachers discounts on supplies through Target Circle. The event will run July 17 through Sept. 10, and provide savings of 15% on supplies. All teachers with valid identifications are eligible for the event.
•	Target's Deal Days savings event will run from from July 11-13. Customers will get discounts on various tech, apparel and beauty products when shopping on Target's website.

Are we in a recession? How underwear and lipstick may hold the answer

For many of us, each trip to the gas station or grocery store brings home how bad inflation is getting and how likely a recession is. But those aren't the only signs to watch. How about these weird economic indicators?

Haircuts: "Economists closely follow this price because a haircut is in large part the same service today as it was 10, 20, or 50 years ago, and is similar across countries," Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in a commentary after the May consumer price index report. "So, this price is a good shorthand for the trend in overall inflation."

Men's underwear: Even former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan kept an eye on undies. Why? Men don't think twice about replacing their underwear when it becomes worn out. But when they have to tighten their belts in recessions, they'd prefer to wear underwear with holes in it than buy a new pair.

Lipstick: During recessions when people are generally feeling worse about themselves because of the state of the economy, women, in particular, tend to buy more lipstick. "Priced significantly lower than designer accessories, apparel, or jewelry, a 'nice-to-have' lipstick plays the role of 'affordable luxury,'" Natallia Bambiza, a makeup and beauty analyst for the NPD Group, wrote in a May report.

🎧 Mood music 🎧

One of my favorite songs about life during recession is Spearhead's 1994 update of the old children's song "There is a Hole in the Bucket ." On his way to the store, the narrator encounters a man begging for change and the ensuing internal debate so monopolizes his thoughts that he loses all the money through the growing hole in his pocket.

"I'm not responsible for this man's depression. How can I find compassion in the midst of a recession? How come all these questions keep (messing) with my head? And I still can't remember why I need a spool of thread."

About The Daily Money

Each weekday, The Daily Money delivers the best consumer news from USA TODAY. We break down financial news and provide the TLDR version: how decisions by the Federal Reserve, government and companies impact you. It even comes with its own Spotify playlist . It features nearly every song quoted here.

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Randall Vaughn, barber and owner of Classic INTOWN, a barber shop located in downtown Atlanta, raised prices of hair cuts by $10 in May

What haircuts and underwear tell us about inflation, recession odds

How do you identify a recession? Pay attention to men's underwear or lipstick sales. And when it comes to inflation, look at stamp and haircut prices.