| | | | Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Claudia Rosett suggests a Chinese crackdown looms in Hong Kong. While President Xi Jinping would face an international backlash if he sent the People's Liberation Army to suppress Hong Kong's protesters, Rosett writes, the West is facing a test in Hong Kong, too: "If the US, Europe or any of the world's democracies have a plan to keep China's jackboot off Hong Kong's throat, now would be the time to try it out," she proposes.
As for how China should respond to the series of demonstrations, The Washington Post writes in an editorial that if "the leaders in Beijing were smart, they would see that the protests that began in June are morphing into something more desperate than before, and they would be responsive to the demands. Instead, they dismiss the protests outright." | | Can Europe Stop Turkey's Drift? | | As Turkey drifts away from Western allies, The Economist writes that it's up to Europe to bring Ankara back into the fold. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's "successive power grabs have edged the country closer to its eastern neighbors and rendered its application for EU membership a joke," the magazine writes. Europe is pulling back from the world stage, but in its dealings with Turkey, the EU could "flex" its geopolitical muscle, issue sanctions where necessary, and recognize that Erdoğan isn't as strong as he seems. That Europe's "GDP is 24 times larger than Turkey's … gives it huge leverage," The Economist writes. "It has not just the motive to do more to reel the country back, but the means too."
As for Turkey's military posture and its purchase of Russian air defenses—which touched off the latest round of concern about Erdoğan's allegiances—the latest episode of the Middle East Institute's "Middle East Focus" podcast hashes that out. In Turkey, the purchase of Russian weapons was "hailed as Turkey's liberation from the West," MEI's Gönül Tol says, while Retired US Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges calls it a strategic head-scratcher. | | Saudi Arabia and the US Are in 'Lockstep' | | | That's what The Soufan Group concludes after Congress failed& to override President Trump's vetoes of resolutions aimed at restricting arms sales to Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration has signaled that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "has carte blanche to continue pursuing his dangerous foreign policy, especially the disastrous war in Yemen," the group writes.
With the US deploying 500 troops to its Gulf ally as a show of unity against Iran, the group also predicts it is "inevitable that al-Qaeda and other militants will seek to capitalize on the presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia in their propaganda." | | What America Misunderstands About China | | As opposing American foreign-policy camps urge different approaches to China, Howard W. French writes for the World Politics Review that neither has it right. Some analysts urge more cooperation and criticize the Trump administration for its combative, anti-China posture; others argue decades of "engagement" with China have failed miserably.
Both are wrong, according to French: China really does aspire to a more dominant role in the world, but treating China as a hostile enemy for the last several decades wouldn't have made things any better. That both views miss the mark "points to a conclusion that is hard to shake," French writes. "The United States has never before seen anything like the challenge that China represents, as no previous rival has combined its size, its sustained speed of growth and its civilizational determination to strengthen itself." In other words, there are no easy answers. | | 'Water Wars' Haven't Materialized | | Despite predictions that future wars would be fought over water supply, those conflicts haven't yet materialized, Lauren Risi writes in a new issue of The Wilson Quarterly that focuses on "Water in a World of Conflict." That's not to say water supply hasn't led to friction, she writes, suggesting drought may have contributed to emigration from Central America. Even if wars aren't being fought over water, its scarcity can exacerbate the plight of those caught up in war, as water infrastructure is damaged, Risi writes. And as the world gets hotter, and droughts more common, up-river countries may find water gives them political leverage over downstream neighbors.
For an unpleasant picture of how global warming, heavy urbanization, and water issues can all collide, Jennifer Möller-Gulland and J. Carl Ganter profile the difficulties of Jakarta, where citizens depend on water deliveries, underground sources are polluted, and the city is sinking so dangerously that Indonesia's government intends to name a new capital. | | | | | | |
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