Monday, June 3, 2019

Same Old Britain, Same Old Trump

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good
 
June 3, 2019

Same Old Britain, Same Old Trump

President Trump's visit to the UK has a "Groundhog Day feeling to it," write Dana Allin and Benjamin Rohde of the International Institute for Security Studies—so much so that they repost (and stand by) their analysis from Trump's last visit, in July 2018: that the hard-Brexit-backing American president, deeply unpopular in a politically gridlocked UK, arrives to "reinforce a central delusion" that Britain can enhance its global standing by breaking away from the EU.

While Brexit may fit with Trump's worldview of national self-interest, Zoe Williams of The Guardian highlights a fundamental contradiction in the alternative Trump offers: that "a close relationship with Trump's America would be as far removed from regaining sovereignty as it is possible to imagine," as Britain will find itself "dominated" by US interests if it turns toward trade and cooperation with the US in place of allying with Europe.

What's Behind the Rise of the Greens?

Green parties surged in Europe's elections, in parallel to their far-right counterparts, and Mitchell Abidor writes in a Foreign Affairs essay that their success has been accompanied by a collapse of the traditional left. Labor and socialist parties still seek to represent the working class, but that voting bloc has turned toward the nationalist right, Abidor writes; the Greens, meanwhile, offer environmentalism without social justice or class grievances as part of their platforms.

Abidor presents the Greens, in part, as a comfortable option for the young people and urbanites who supported them, as the problem of climate change is obvious, and dealing with it does not involve remaking the social class system. If it's tempting to see, in the Greens' rise, the left moving further left, Abidor's analysis is that the Greens are "not an alternative left at all," which may be the secret to their success.

Where High-Skilled Immigrants Want to Go

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently ranked its member countries (comprised of advanced economies) in terms of attractiveness to highly skilled immigrants, on a range of metrics like quality of opportunities, inclusiveness, and quality of life. The winners: Australia, for highly educated workers; Canada, for entrepreneurs; and Switzerland, for university students. From the OECD:

With each metric weighted evenly, Australia won out. Notably, immigration policies held the US down: America ranked much higher (it was the most desirable destination for highly educated workers and the second-most for university students) before the OECD's researchers took immigration policies into account, according to their research paper.

Will China Remake the Oil Trade?

Already the world's largest net oil importer, by 2016 International Energy Agency statistics, China's oil demand has shot up (Chinese imports hit a monthly record in April), and Nick Butler writes in the Financial Times that it's possible China will turn to unconventional means of securing supply.

The US has attempted to forbid anyone from buying Iranian oil, and given that nearly half of China's oil imports come from the Middle East, Butler wonders if China will conclude that "an open trading system cannot be relied upon" and begin securing oil supply through bilateral deals, potentially involving Chinese investment in exchange for oil, or Chinese ownership of oil resources in other countries. That would look very different from how the oil market works now, but it would be an "understandable" path forward for China, Butler writes.

Al Qaeda's Soft Message

Honing a tactic to which it turned during the 2011 Arab Spring, al Qaeda is offering a softer, more inclusive message to Algeria's pro-democratic protesters, Mina al-Lami writes in a Chatham House essay. The messaging is "clearly intended for a diverse Muslim audience that the group does not want to antagonize by using threatening jihadist rhetoric," al-Lami writes; it's a shift in strategy, one that stands "in stark contrast to [al Qaeda's] inflexible rival, the Islamic State" and provides evidence that al Qaeda is "willing to show flexibility to exploit Muslim political activism."

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