| | | | Will Germany Return to Its Nationalist Past? | | "Think of Europe today as an unexploded bomb, its detonator intact and functional, its explosives still live," Robert Kagan warns us in Foreign Affairs, raising the possibility that Germany could return to its nationalist past, awakened and untethered in a Europe filled with nationalism and populism.
Germany has been a model of peace and liberalism in the post-World War II system, but the constraints are fading: Nationalist parties are on the rise, the free-trade system is threatened, and President Trump has thrown America's security guarantees into question. It's a frightening thought, but Kagan suggests Europe's economic powerhouse could return to a natural state of nationalism and ambition, if this carefully laid system falls apart. | | Elections Hit Erdogan Where it Hurts | | | President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has enjoyed a firm grip on power, but results in municipal elections have hit him where it hurts—his story—writes Selim Koru in The New York Times. Erdogan's Justice and Development Party is contesting mayoral results in Istanbul and Ankara, but opposition candidates may have won in both cities. They're important to the narrative of Erdogan's political career, Koru writes: Erdogan launched his rise as mayor of Istanbul, when he and a then-allied mayor of Ankara created "islands of good governance" that set them apart from the ruling elite. The potential losses, then, not only cut into Erdogan's base, but into his origin story. It was a "significant setback" for Erdogan, writes Politico Europe's Zia Weise, while Reuters' Dasha Afanasieva says it's bad news for Turkey's economy, as Erdogan will likely feel pressure to seek short-term fixes that won't heal Turkey's current recession. | | | For all the chaos of Brexit, things have never been this bad, writes David Allen Green in the Financial Times; with an April 12 deadline looming, the country is unprepared for a no-deal Brexit, Parliament is unable to support any other plan, and Britain has no solid case for another extension from the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May is making such a case, nonetheless, but Green says European countries have already braced themselves for a no-deal Brexit and might not agree this time. Still on the table is the "nuclear option" of revoking the UK's Article 50 withdrawal—i.e., canceling Brexit—but that would only make sense as a stall tactic, buying time for a new referendum or general election, writes Carnegie Europe's Peter Kellner, and Green says it might encounter legal problems to be done in time. | | How to Regulate Tech Giants: Make Them Share Data | | | As the world wrings its hands over how to regulate the Internet, the idea of data mobility seems to be gaining steam. Earlier this month, a UK government panel recommended allowing users to move their personal data between services—something Mark Zuckerberg endorsed—and for the big firms to make user data accessible to smaller competitors. A new paper from the Peterson Institute for International Economics echoes that recommendation. The concentration of user data in big firms like Google, Facebook, and Amazon "is at the root of a worrying power imbalance between dominant internet firms and the rest of society," it finds. Massive data collections allow them to develop AI faster than competitors, bar new entrants, and add to the risks of consumer-data breaches. One answer, the paper suggests: Break up their data monopolies. | | Iran Plays the Waiting Game, Looks East | | | Stung by US sanctions, which have cut Iranian oil exports by 1 million barrels per day, Iran appears content to wait out the Trump administration in the hopes that a Democratic replacement will reinstate the 2015 nuclear deal, Barbara Slavin writes for The Interpreter; it hasn't pulled back from regional partnerships and has shown no interest in negotiating with President Trump. In the meantime, it's looking East: To soften the blow, Iran has sought deeper ties with China, through a series of recent visits, including one by its parliamentary speaker, in an attempt to restart a gas-development project in which China had invested, and to spur trade and oil sales, write Masha Rouhi and Clement Therme of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. | | | | | | |
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