| | | | Sri Lanka and the Future of Terrorism | | | Sri Lanka's attacks point to a future trend, terrorism expert Anne Speckhard tells Foreign Policy: small groups mobilizing quickly to attack in unexpected world regions. ISIS fighters have returned to their home countries, and the viral idea of jihad has persisted past the caliphate's collapse, making conditions ripe for attacks in new places. ISIS enjoys a large "menu of secondary targets, where it can flex its remaining power and build up new prestige," Graeme Wood writes in The Atlantic. South Asia appears to be one of them: Muslims face discrimination in India, and extremist groups already operate in Pakistan, Neil DeVotta and Sumit Ganguly write at Foreign Affairs; the Easter attacks could fan sectarianism and ultimately "claim more victims," they warn. | | Trump's Iran Strategy Could Backfire | | | As he maximizes pressure on Iran, President Trump is hanging his strategy on the cooperation of other countries, writes Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group—namely China, India, and Turkey. Those are Iran's main oil customers, and Trump needs them to go along with his plan to eliminate Iranian oil exports. The problem, Vaez writes, is that Trump may lack the credibility to convince them, and seeking to coerce them could backfire. The plan might also spell danger for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, on whom Trump is counting to pump more oil and keep up global supply; Vaez writes that Iran could use militants or cyberattacks to strike back at them. | | More Robots Will Mean More War | | | Technological advancements have already made certain types of war more appealing (the US has continued to favor drone strikes under President Trump, for instance), and Paul Springer of the Foreign Policy Research Institute sees things escalating further. As the military develops autonomous weapons to be used offensively—think drones that can make their own decisions, or robot mercenaries—opportunities for war without risk of casualty will only increase. Troublingly, Springer worries about the legal consequences, predicting autonomous weapons could render Congress's war powers obsolete (with no troops deployed, no authorization would be required), allowing leaders to prosecute risk-reduced war with "impunity." | | The End of American Patience in Asia | | | America has taken a patient approach to Asia, but it's time for that to change, writes former national security adviser H.R. McMaster, in an essay in the Hoover Digest. Hopes that China would open its economy and liberalize, and that North Korea would forsake its nukes, have not panned out. What the US should do, now, is get more assertive. That means taking a more realistic (or cynical) look at the Chinese ruling party, steadfastly maintaining a commitment to South Korea's defense, and telling North Korea that it's responsible for abiding by UN demands—and that it shouldn't waste the rare opportunity of alignment between the president, Republicans, Democrats, and South Korea, all of whom want to strike a deal. | | On Belt and Road, China Adapts | | | As China convenes a summit on its Belt and Road Initiative in Beijing today, the infrastructure initiative faces continued skepticism over costs, transparency, and canceled projects in Pakistan, Myanmar, and Malaysia, writes the Atlantic Council's David A. Wemer. But China has shown some flexibility in confronting those concerns. Some of its loans are generous—Laos, for instance, will pay a below-market 2.3% over 35 years, The Economist notes, comparing that deal to what the World Bank might offer—and Bloomberg's Andrew Small cites a "striking willingness to renegotiate contracts," pointing to a 30% cost reduction for a rail project in Malaysia. As China changes tack and scales Belt and Road down a bit, Small writes, the initiative will become more effective. | | | | | | |
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