View this email in your browser Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good   April 3, 2019 Europe Gets Tough on China Europe is growing skeptical of Chinese trade and investment, Andrew Small writes in Foreign Affairs. Despite some signs of warming, like Italy's accession to the Belt and Road initiative, Europe seems to view China more as a rival than as a developing economy to be helped along. Consequently, Europe has opposed China at the WTO, now coordinates the screening of Chinese investments for security threats, and is working to compete with Belt and Road.  It reflects a concern that EU members could use Chinese investment as leverage against each other and against Brussels—and it's pushing Europe closer to the US line on how to handle China's rise. NATO Spending Is Still a Problem Arguably, President Trump's most successful foreign-policy initiative has been to browbeat NATO allies into greater spending. A complaint shared by his predecessors, NATO spending has inched up from 1.41% of GDP, on average in 2016, to 1.48% in 2018. Six countries, other than the US, now meet the 2% target, up from two in 2014. But NATO spending is still a massive problem, pushing the alliance to an "existential" crisis over broken promises, Der Spiegel writes. At the heart of the problem is German recalcitrance, after the country's budget called for 1.25% of GDP spending on defense; allies have taken notice, and German explanations have fallen on deaf ears. The Financial Times' Constanze Stelzenmüller calls it an "act of diplomatic self-harm"—a bad sign for the alliance, which celebrates its 70th anniversary this month. Trade War Windfall If the US/China trade war escalates, that'll hurt the world economy, a new IMF report finds—but some countries stand to win, as China and the US seek trade elsewhere. The lower graph tells the story: That's just in the short term: If China and the US impose 25% tariffs on each other's goods, it'll cost the US up to .6% of GDP; China, up to 1.5%; and the world economy .1% in the first year. Tariff wars spill over more in a globalized economy, the IMF finds, and lower confidence would suppress growth overall. Rise of the Cyber Mercenaries Accusations by Jeff Bezos's investigator that Saudi Arabia had access to the Amazon CEO's phone (a claim Saudi Arabia denies and which has not been verified) only highlights growing capabilities in international cyberespionage, The Soufan Group writes. Those capabilities extend to private firms, whose hacking abilities rival those of nation-states; they incorporate the tricks of intelligence professionals and deploy them under private contracts. Private actors aren't bound by the same international norms as countries, and the The Soufan Group reminds us that there are serious consequences for democratic societies, when politicians and business leaders live under the constant threat of hacking and blackmail. Is It Trump, or American Voters? President Trump has been so diplomatically disruptive that one is tempted to wonder if US allies will simply wait him out, banking on his successor to restore normalcy. It's not so simple, writes The German Marshall Fund's Bruce Stokes, pointing to deep schisms between Republicans and Democrats on the value of trade (and whether Europe plays fair), improving relations with allies, and climate change. America's European allies, then, need "to begin to prepare for a world in which the United States is not a dependable ally because there no longer exists in the country a bipartisan consensus on issues of importance to Europe," he writes. In other words, it's not just Trump, but American voters, who are forcing allies to handle the US differently. Share Tweet Fwd unsubscribe from this list update subscription preferences  Copyright © 2019 Cable News Network, Inc. A WarnerMedia Company., All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you subscribed to CNN newsletters. Our mailing address is: Cable News Network, Inc. A WarnerMedia Company. One CNN Center Atlanta, GA 30303 Add us to your address book What did you like about today's Global Briefing? What did we miss? Let us know what you think: GlobalBriefing@cnn.com Sign up to get updates on your favorite CNN Original Series, special CNN news coverage and other newsletters.​   Sign Up for Fareed's Global Briefing