Monday, February 4, 2019

Why Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Working

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good.
 
February 4, 2019

Why Trump's Tariffs Aren't Working

On its face, it looks like a big win for President Trump's tariffs: US steel producers have recorded a round of record profits, benefiting from restricted competition. But The Wall Street Journal's editorial board takes a deeper look, concluding the victory is a pyrrhic one, as companies like Ford that manufacture with imported steel have taken a hit from higher prices, and other sectors including agriculture suffer from China's retaliation.
 
Indeed, the South China Morning Post reports continued anxiety among US soybean producers, unenthusiastic about another Chinese promise to buy more and concerned about future market access.
 
Importantly, the Journal notes that if Trump and China strike a deal, and tariffs are dropped, the windfall for American steel will be short lived.

Out of Syria, Into Iraq?

US policy on the Middle East is in a state of flux: After announcing a withdrawal from Syria, President Trump said this weekend he wants US troops to stay in Iraq—not just to fight ISIS, but to keep an eye on Iran.
 
That would be a different mission, and Iraq's president has rejected the idea, while momentum builds among Iraqi lawmakers to expel US troops, The Washington Post reports.
 
Trump's newly reoriented aims in Syria and Iraq appear to blend his trademark isolationism with his (and National Security Adviser John Bolton's) stated concerns about Iran. And there may be reason for concern about escalation: The US presence in Syria had already risked a direct confrontation with Iran, Foreign Policy's Lara Seligman writes, citing a US official, warning of "mission creep" on the ground and noting a nearly avoided airstrike on Iranian-aligned forces in 2017.

The 'Third Pole' Is Melting, Too

A new report brings yet another frightening reminder of global warming: More than a third of the Hindu Kush Himalaya—dubbed the "third pole," which, combined with the neighboring Tien Shan range forms the earth's largest area of ice cover outside the North and South poles—could melt by the end of the century, even if warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new 600-page report from scientists led by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.
 
It's an often-overlooked region in international climate reports, with 250 million living there and about 1.65 billion benefiting from it as a water source, experts tell E&E News—foreshadowing a large impact for another looming climate crisis.

Will the Populist Wave Crash?

Populism has been the story of global politics since Brexit and the election of President Trump , and two writers take opposing views on how long the trend will last: Citing the history of global political movements, The Financial Times' Gideon Rachman suggests that if populist politics take further root, we could be in for a populist era that lasts 30 years.
 
But the underpinnings of populism, in America at least, might be shaky: Harvard Prof. Joseph Nye, writing in Project Syndicate, cites US support for immigration and global engagement, arguing the sentiments that drive populism are waning.
 
In the near term, European Parliament elections in May and the looming 2020 US presidential race should offer some clues as to where things are heading.
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