| | | | After concerns had mounted that President Trump would give up too much in Hanoi, some are relieved that his summit with Kim Jong-Un ended early, without any deal. Trump is "to be applauded" for walking away, after rushing into high-level talks too quickly, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center senior fellow Todd Rosenblum says.
So where are things headed, now? "Fire and fury" level tensions are unlikely to return, writes Victor Cha, who represented the US in North Korea talks in the 2000s, but we'll have to wait and see what happens: After the summit's failure, Trump will likely turn his attention toward other foreign-policy areas, and the status quo—of suspended US-South Korea military exercises and paused North Korean nuclear testing—might or might not hold. | | Bracing for Failure in the US/China Trade Talks | | Disagreements between the US and China might be too big to resolve, and we should prepare for a future in which talks fail and the trade war becomes permanent, Kevin Nealer writes at the Nikkei Asian Review. Despite progress on "peripheral" issues like currency, intellectual property, and technology transfers, the core dispute is over the Chinese government's support for its companies—and budging on that front would mean sacrificing China's stated goal of achieving dominance in high-tech sectors.
Meeting US demands would mean a structural change for China's economy—it granted hundreds of billions in yuan in subsidies to Chinese companies in 2017 alone—and China appears unlikely to give up on protecting its industries, Orange Wang writes in the South China Morning Post.
In other words: Don't be fooled by the delayed tariffs. President Xi Jinping has an economic plan, and protectionism is part of it. | | Are India and Pakistan on a Path to Escalation? | | India and Pakistan have resolved conflicts before without catastrophic escalation, but this time, things might be more dangerous.
"The ball is in Mr. Modi's court" now, The Economist writes, after India's cross-border airstrike and the later downing and capture of an Indian pilot, amid a Pakistani retaliation. Pakistan is offering dialogue, but the Indian prime minister may be tempted to have the last word, militarily—and his own nationalistic politics and looming election may push things that way.
There are other reasons to worry. The countries' nuclear arsenals have only grown, and what's needed now is for larger powers to play intermediary—at a time when the US is unable to do so, The Economist and the Financial Times both point out. America is less interested in diplomacy under Trump, understaffed in South-Asia diplomats at the State Department, and unable to pressure Pakistan as it negotiates an exit from Afghanistan. | | Russia's Head Start in an Arms Race | | Russia has 10 times more nuclear weapons than the US has deployed in Europe, and America lacks medium-range nukes, but that's not the biggest problem for Europe, as tensions rise after the collapse of the INF Treaty, Piotr Buras writes at the European Council on Foreign Relations: It's Europe's own division over how to respond.
A split between Germany and Poland is illustrative: The latter seems to want an American base—and American weapons—while Germany does not think more nukes are the answer.
Facing this challenge divided might be "the worst thing" Europe can do, Buras writes, but with Eurosceptic parties on the rise ahead of European elections this spring, European unity seems unlikely in a host of areas. | | If you're tired of worrying about the future of the planet, then the MIT Technology Review has some good news for you: Startups and scientists are making at least modest progress on things like carbon sequestration and battery technology that could make renewable energy more feasible. Those are among the magazine's list of 10 global challenges tech could solve—along with a universal flu vaccine, dementia treatment, ocean clean-up, turning sea water into drinking water more efficiently, safe driverless cars, earthquake prediction, and decoding human brains to better treat conditions like autism and schizophrenia.
Of course, androids ("embodied A.I.") are also on that list, so tech still offers a dose of dystopia. | | | | | | |
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