| | | | US to Maduro: Flee the Country Now | | Stakes are getting higher in Venezuela, as the US minces fewer words: National Security Adviser John Bolton publicly encouraged (some might say threatened?) Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a tweet suggesting he flee the country; a State Dept. official reiterated that "all options remain on the table"; and an unnamed US official suggested to CNN's Kevin Liptak that other countries might be "looting" Venezuela's gold ahead of a regime change.
On a rosier note, opposition leader Juan Guaido took to the opinion pages of The New York Times to introduce himself to the world, offer amnesty to those "not guilty of crimes against humanity," note "clandestine" meetings with Venezuela's military, call for a transitional government with new elections, and stress dialogue and hope for minimum "bloodshed." Guaido scored another international victory Thursday as the European Parliament formally recognized him as interim president.
With Maduro reportedly using secret police to quell dissent, and Russia still backing him, the standoff continues with tensions only growing. | | Should We Fear a European Slowdown? | | GDP grew at a tiny .3% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2018, capping a year of low showings, the EU's statistics agency reported, and as Italy slipped back into recession, slow European growth could be a concern for the global economy—particularly as China's growth lagged last year, too.
The Eurozone could enter a recession in 2019, suggests London Business School professor and former European Central Bank research director Lucrezia Reichlin, writing in Project Syndicate. A further slowdown will test the EU on one of its fundamental economic problems: A single currency, but no unified policies on taxes and spending, making coordination key in the face of economic trouble. The outlook for Europe is about longer-term trends, Reichlin writes: It's about demographics and a decline in productivity—something more fundamental that could challenge European unity if the EU's economic project fails to deliver. | | Trump vs. the Intel Chiefs | | | It's a familiar story in the Trump era: a feud with intelligence and/or law enforcement, two institutions seldom if ever attacked by presidents. It flared again this week after Trump's intel chiefs departed from the president's lines on North Korea, Iran, and ISIS before Congress—and Trump publicly broke with them on Twitter, most pointedly calling them "naïve" on Iran.
While the Trump/intel rift is not new, it's more public than ever, and it's drawn a wave of reaction: Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said she was "stunned" by it, and The Washington Post's Rick Noack notes Trump is already isolated from US allies on Iran, in particular. Trump now claims his top intel officials said that "they were totally misquoted" after their testimony to Congress.
The spat highlights an ongoing question: With Trump so clearly on a different page from the top officials who, in any other administration, would be guiding US foreign policy, what can the world expect from America? | | Can a Trump/Xi Meeting Solve the Trade War? | | The US/China trade war has been marked, along with Brexit, as a major question mark for the global economy. News comes today, as Chinese and American negotiators meet in Washington, that China is suggesting the two leaders meet—and President Trump said he thinks a final deal will be hashed out between Xi and himself directly.
A trade-war truce is in place until a March 1 deadline, when the US would impose more tariffs if a deal isn't reached, but The Washington Post's Adam Taylor notes the sides could get further, not closer, to an agreement, thanks to the Justice Dept.'s case against Huawei. | | Britain Has to Save Itself | | If the UK is hoping Europe will bail it out of its Brexit quandary, it can think again, Philip Stephens writes at the Financial Times: Parliament wants to avoid a no-deal Brexit, but it has no alternative plan, and Britain can no longer be treated by Europe as a reliable negotiating partner.
The Economist concurs, sort of: Collectively, British MPs want something contradictory and unworkable—no hard border with Ireland, while setting their own tariffs and fleeing the customs union—but the EU can at least give the UK more time to sort out its internal mess. | | | | | | |
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