| | | | Fareed: The Danger of the Trump Two-Step | | | There's a familiar pattern to President Trump's foreign policy – insults and threats, followed by backtracking and a declaration of victory, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. "Call it the Trump two-step." "There are those who assert that Trump's seemingly bizarre and unpredictable behavior is actually all part of a canny and wise strategy, that he is playing a kind of four-dimensional chess, operating in space-time. Well, if so, he is getting beaten badly here on Earth," Fareed says. "His usual approach is to announce something vague, as with North Korea and the trade talks with Europe, or something already in place, such as NATO members' promise to spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense by 2024, and claim it as a victory. "But there is a cost to this bluster and flip-flopping. Trump is creating a reputation for the United States as erratic, unpredictable, unreliable and fundamentally hostile to the global order. Leader after leader in Europe has made this clear." | | Why North Korea's Latest Move Matters | | | The Trump administration's announcement that North Korea has handed over "what are believed to be the remains of US troops killed during the Korean War" doesn't in itself advance the cause of denuclearization, writes Uri Friedman for The Atlantic. That doesn't mean it won't help. "To begin with, as the White House hinted in announcing the repatriation of some remains on Friday, the next phase could involve US authorities joining North Korean authorities in North Korea to search for the remains of US soldiers that have yet to be found. Frank Jannuzi, who was involved in a previous US government effort in the early 2000s to recover US service members' remains from North Korea, has observed that these joint operations not only cultivated trust between Washington and Pyongyang but also yielded rare insights about America's most inscrutable adversary," Friedman writes. | | Pakistan's New Leader: Bark Worse Than His Bite for America? | | Former cricket star Imran Khan's party is expected to be declared the winner of Pakistan's election, which was marred by widespread allegations of vote-rigging, CNN reports.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center's Asia Program, emails Global Briefing that a Khan-led government likely isn't as bad for America as it might seem.
"Khan's public views have been stridently anti-American, and he is harshly critical of the US-Pakistan partnership. He once vowed to shoot down American drones in Pakistan if he were in power," Kugelman writes. "But in reality, the implications of a Khan victory should be relatively minimal for Washington. The future trajectory of Pakistan's relationship with the US will be determined not by the civilian government, but Pakistan's army, which Washington faults for providing sanctuary to terrorists.
"While Khan's anti-American rhetoric may be an irritant, the new government will be more of a sideshow than a strong influence on the bilateral relationship. Indeed, the Pakistani military, which seeks a workable relationship with Washington, may well press Khan to rein in his tough rhetoric." - For more on the election, watch GPS this Sunday at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET on CNN when Fareed will be joined by Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, and Laurel Miller, the former US acting Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
| | Two Elections and a Funeral (for Democracy) | | | Cambodians head to the polls Sunday for an election almost certain to see long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen triumph. John Reed writes for The Financial Times that it could mark — "symbolically at least — the death of the country's flawed democratic exercise."
"This began when a UN force was deployed in the country in 1991, bringing an end to the country's dark years of war and genocide and paving the way for democratic elections in 1993," Reed writes. "Now foreign donors are reflecting on the merits of pouring resources into the UN force, as well as subsequent economic aid and nation-building projects, now that there is little to show for such largesse in a country riddled by corruption and controlled by one man and his party." "Instead the old despot's former sidekick, who took his place after a coup last year, is bidding for legitimacy, together with Zanu-PF, the ruling party. Emmerson Mnangagwa…now presents himself as a reformed character. He vows to save the economy from disaster, revive the country's farms and mines, compensate whites whose land was stolen under Mr Mugabe, stamp out corruption and bring back harmony and prosperity. Do not believe it." | | How Team Trump Is Squandering Its India Opportunity | | | On paper, President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi should be a perfect match – nationalist leaders of two democratic countries that have an interest in checking a rising China, writes James Crabtree for Slate. But America First might have put the kibosh on that. It started with "moves to tighten H-1B visas for technology workers, which have often been used by Indian outsourcers. More recently there have been threats of possible 'secondary sanctions' against India, if it continues to buy oil from Iran, one of its most important energy suppliers," Crabtree writes. "Then there are growing disputes over trade flowing from Trump's attempts to pressure China and rip up the existing global trading system…As a still-poor country, India wants the kind of international stability that will allow its economy to grow. Broadly speaking, Modi backs the current global order that Trump is tearing down. The more that destruction continues, the weaker ties between the US and India are likely to become." | | | | | | |
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