Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Jason Miks.

May 3, 2018

Europe's Epic Fail on Handling a Bully

European leaders had an opportunity to push back against Donald Trump's criticism of the Iran deal. Instead, they chose flattery – and have probably doomed the agreement in the process, argues Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy.

"[I]nstead of getting tough with Trump and warning him that Europe would both stick to the deal and defy any subsequent US effort to impose secondary sanctions on them, all three leaders chose to mollify and flatter Trump instead," Walt writes.

"Macron tried to persuade Trump to let him 'mediate' some sort of a new deal between the various parties, only to say at the end of his visit that he believed Trump would nix the deal for 'domestic reasons.' Next up was Merkel, who held a three-hour meeting with Trump and then told reporters that the current nuclear agreement was 'not sufficient.' May reportedly then conferred with Macron and Merkel after their trips to Washington, and the three leaders sought to present a united front that was crafted to support the deal without alienating Trump.

"The practical result of all this sucking up was disastrous. The top European powers had effectively caved in to the Trump administration's view that the Iran deal is inadequate and has to be either replaced or supplemented by additional agreements."

Trump's China Team Is Missing Something Important

President Trump has dispatched his top economic officials for talks in China that many hope can avert an outright trade war. There's just one thing missing, the Wall Street Journal editorializes: A coherent strategy.

"The top target of the US delegation should be the Made in China 2025 program that supports key industries with subsidies. It also calls for foreign firms to hand over their trade secrets in return for access to the Chinese market," the paper says.

"If the Trump Administration weren't so busy attacking its allies like Japan, Canada, Mexico and Europe on trade, it could forge a coalition of developed countries to pressure China to abandon the program."

"Administration officials say they want to use the threat of sanctions as leverage to force China to change its mercantilist policies. That can't work until the US has a coherent negotiating position. The danger is that Mr. Trump may want conflict with China for conflict's sake—to show Americans he's fighting for their interests."

Still, the US trade team might have an edge in hands-on experience over China, Keith Bradsher writes in The New York Times.

"Many of the negotiators representing the United States are more comfortable than their Chinese counterparts with the fine points of trade policy. [US Trade Representative Robert] Lighthizer, for example, has been immersed in trade issues continuously since the Carter administration," Bradsher writes.

"By contrast, after a series of bureaucratic reorganizations in recent months, many of China's top trade negotiators are now economists and bankers with little practical experience in trade matters."

The Other Danger of Scrapping the Iran Deal

It looks increasingly like President Trump is intent on scrapping the Iran nuclear deal. That's unlikely to lead to outright conflict in the short term, writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan for The Guardian. But there would still be terrible consequences.

The collapse of the deal "would destroy the moderates and reformists in Iran for the foreseeable future. This is particularly important since the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 78, and there has been speculation over his health. The time may soon come when a successor takes his place – the biggest political change in decades. Rouhani has already been under intense pressure from his opponents. The failure of the deal will only embolden hardliners, who are responsible for outrageous human rights abuses, such as the ongoing detention of dual nationals like Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe," Dehghan says.

What the US and Russia Have in Common in the Middle East

Russia and the United States might find themselves at odds over the conflict in Syria. But they've got something important in common in the region, too, argues Alan Philps for The National: "They both have unruly allies who are keen to lead them by the nose."

"Where Israel goes – and its aircraft have been regularly attacking suspected arms caches of Iran and its allies in Syria – the US has to follow. Like it or not, the US is seen to be part of this risky Israeli strategy and the impression will grow even stronger if in less than two weeks, Mr. Trump withdraws from Iran nuclear agreement," Philps writes.

"For the moment, Russia has the role of trying to restrain Iran, its partner in the campaign to prop up the Assad regime while accommodating Israel. While Russia's goal is the restoration of the Syrian state, Iran's game plan is different – to build a military strongpoint inside Syria. The justification for this is opening a new front against Israel. The last thing that Moscow wants, as the major power in Syria and controller of the airspace, is to have Iran lead it by the nose into a war with Israel."

Why Crime Is Soaring in Mexico

Almost half of Mexicans feel that crime is the biggest problem in their area. But less than two months before the country's presidential election, it's not clear the candidates understand the problem, argues The Economist.

"Mexico's location, between South America's coca fields and the United States' drugs market, makes it vulnerable. But the persistence of violence is the fault of a weak state, and especially of inadequate policing, prosecution and courts. Widespread corruption greatly worsens the problem. Rather than correcting those defects, recent governments have cracked down ineptly," The Economist says.

"Police investigate just a quarter of murders. In part that is because there are too few police. The interior ministry has set a target of 1.8 police for every 1,000 people. Only Mexico City and the state of Tabasco have met it. Police and officials are underpaid, and thus tempted to work for criminals rather than against them."

"Another problem is co-ordination. Mexico has municipal, state and federal police forces, plus the army[…]In many states municipal and state-level police do not use the same radio frequencies and therefore cannot communicate. The army resents being asked to chase domestic criminals, a job it thinks the police should do."

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