| | | | Kushner Just Joined a Really Big Club. That's a Problem: Bergen | | In having his security clearance downgraded from "top secret" to "secret," Jared Kushner has joined a club of about 3.6 million people. That's a problem, says Peter Bergen for CNN Opinion.
"Without a top secret clearance, Kushner won't be able to attend most NSC meetings, colleagues will be leery about discussing much of substance with him, and the former avid consumer of intelligence will only have access to the kind of relatively low-level intelligence that some three and half million other Americans with secret clearances also have," Bergen writes.
"With only a secret clearance, Kushner might as well leave the White House tomorrow -- at least when it comes to national security matters -- because he will be receiving scant relevant intelligence for his work, he won't be able to attend key meetings, nor will he receive the crown jewel of the intelligence community, the President's Daily Briefs."
| | Why America Might Need to Pull Its Cyber Punches | | | It's understandable that US cyber forces feel like striking back against Russia following its election meddling. But they need to be careful, because things could quickly spiral out of control, argues Jason Healey for the Cipher Brief.
"We cannot forget that our adversaries are sure they are hitting back, not first. They have their own sense of righteous purpose and the United States is seen the schoolyard bully. This isn't to make any moral equivalence between US cyber operations and theirs, but there is an escalatory equivalence as each side responds tit-for-tat against the campaigns of the other. Nations will respond very differently to cyber deterrence when they are sure they are hitting back, not hitting first," Healey argues.
"Fighting back is viscerally satisfying. It may even prove successful. But it must not be done out of revenge but with a real chance of success, of better national security outcomes for the nation." | | The Truth About Guns and Mental Illness | | | The shooting this month at a Florida school reignited the discussion over the link between mental illness and gun violence. But those warning we should do more to prevent the mentally ill getting their hands on firearms have the discussion backward, writes Andray Domise in Maclean's. "There's plenty of evidence to suggest that people living with mental illnesses are not only in the minority of mass shooters, they're in fact more likely than their peers to be subjected to violence," Domise writes. "While mass shootings committed by people with mental health conditions represent less than 5 percent of violent crimes (and less than 1 percent of all gun-related homicides) in the United States, nearly 25 percent of people with mental health conditions are likely to experience violence against themselves (whether physical or sexual) in a given year. And when people experiencing mental health crises do commit violence with firearms, it's most often self-inflicted. Suicide still comprises the majority of gun-related deaths." | | Where Minority Report Is Getting Real | | Minority Report was great sci-fi, but its central premise – that people can be arrested before they commit a crime – was dystopian. Not too dystopian for China's government, though, which is trying out mass surveillance-based predictive policing in the restive region of Xinjiang, the Wall Street Journal's Josh Chin reports, citing a report by Human Rights Watch.
"China's government has turned Xinjiang, a vast region on the border with Central Asia that thrums with ethnic tension, into a laboratory for cutting-edge surveillance and social control. High-definition cameras, security checkpoints equipped with facial recognition and police patrols armed with hand-held smartphone scanners blanket the region's cities and villages," Chin writes.
"China's government and police have deemed surveillance necessary to detect extremist beliefs among Muslims, mainly members of the Uighur ethnic group – some of whom have been linked to terrorist attacks inside and outside of Xinjiang."
"Some Uighur exiles and researchers describe an evaluation system based on a 100-point scale in which individuals are docked for biographical information authorities consider threatening.
"Tahir Imin, a Uighur academic and journalist who fled Xinjiang for the US last February, said a friend in Urumqi was detained in June after authorities docked his score for praying regularly, owning a passport and traveling to Turkey."
| | Did the Drumbeat of War Just Get Louder? | | The Trump administration's Korea diplomacy was already missing something important – namely an ambassador. But the imminent loss of its point man on North Korea, who is retiring this week, has left the diplomatic resource cupboard even more bare – and is boosting speculation that war, not diplomacy, is what's on Team Trump's mind, writes Steve Mollman for Quartz.
"[Joseph] Yun's departure will fuel speculation that the Trump administration is seriously considering military action against North Korea. It follows another highly respected North Korea expert, Victor Cha, George W. Bush's top North Korea representative, not becoming, to the surprise of many, the US ambassador to South Korea last month," Mollman writes. "Though he seemed the perfect candidate and was the clear front-runner, Cha told the administration he disliked the idea of a 'bloody nose' strike against North Korea – and found himself out of the running." - Real diplomat wanted. Diplomacy is a skill honed by experience. The Trump administration should remember that when it picks Yun's successor, suggests Mintaro Oba for NK News.
"Whether the job is mostly about tightening our North Korea pressure campaign – or actually talking with North Korea – it should be done by someone who knows how to do it well," Oba writes. "But whoever the Trump administration picks, it would be a mistake not to pick a career diplomat with the right skills and experience. The administration can always bring in think tankers, intelligence analysts, generals, and politicians to weigh in on North Korea at the NSC. None of those people would bring the added value of a seasoned diplomat at State."
| | Afghan President Ashraf Ghani wants to show the Taliban – and the world – that he is serious about negotiating. But if past is prologue, the Afghan government's latest overture – including offering to provide passports and an office in Kabul to the group's members – is likely to fall on deaf ears, suggests Andrew Kramer for The New York Times.
"The Taliban's main faction has insisted on direct negotiations with the United States and dismisses the American-backed government in Kabul as a puppet," Kramer writes. "The Taliban has yet to respond to Mr. Ghani's proposal. But in a statement on Monday, they said they had asked American officials to talk directly to their political office, and not through the Afghan government." The Henley Passport Index ranks "all the passports of the world according to the number of countries their holders can travel to visa-free." Afghanistan allows visa-free travel to just 24 countries. The top-rated passports? Japan and Singapore, which both allow visa-free travel to 180 nations, according to the index.
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