| | | | Which of Trump's Buttons Did Putin Push? | | The U.S. needs more from Russia than Russia does from America. And Vladimir Putin will know which buttons to press to help secure what it wants from the Trump administration, suggest Christopher Dickey and Josephine Huetlin following President Trump's meeting with Putin.
"What Putin knows, and certainly will play on, is Trump's notion that the so-called Islamic State and other forms of 'radical Islamic terrorism' are an enormous threat to Western or, as Putin and Trump may agree, to 'Christian' civilization," they write in the Daily Beast. "That was the core message of Trump's speech in Poland on Thursday, and one that Putin -- allied as he is with the Russian Orthodox Church -- can use easily as a source of 'mutual understanding.'"
"Putin also knows that Trump's focus on terrorism is useful to him politically, because it has also been useful to Putin: the exploitation of fear and insecurity is a tried and true method of demagogues everywhere, whether the threat is real, exaggerated, or manufactured." - Trump raises election meddling. "Talks focused on how the two countries 'secure a commitment that the Russian government has no intention' of interfering in future elections, [Secretary of State Rex] Tillerson said. 'How do we have a framework where we have capability to judge what is happening in the cyberworld.'"
| | Fareed: What If We're Wrong About North Korea? | | The conventional wisdom in Washington on North Korea has long been that applying more and more pressure is the solution, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. After all, the thinking goes, Kim "is unpredictable and irrational and cannot be negotiated with. Eventually this weird and cruel regime will collapse."
"But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong?"
"[P]ressure will work only if there is also some reason for North Korea to make concessions. Pyongyang has indicated in the past that it seeks a formal end to the Korean War (Washington signed only an armistice in 1953), a recognition of the regime and the lifting of sanctions. Obviously none of this should be offered right now, but there is no harm in talking to Pyongyang and searching for ways to trade some of these concessions for the complete eradication of the nuclear program."
| | Is Russia Creating a New Hotspot? | | | Political tensions are rising in the Balkans, with an assist from Russia, write Seth Cropsey and Kevin Truitte in National Review. As a result, the two-decades-old, U.S.-brokered Dayton agreement is looking increasingly fragile -- with potentially far-reaching consequences.
"A return of violence in Bosnia would rattle NATO, with unknowable results. The U.S. would be very hard pressed to contribute effective combat power, as it did in the early 1990s," they write. "Ethnic violence would spread beyond the Balkans. Jihadists from across the Middle East and beyond would be unlikely to stay out of the fray. Hundreds of thousands of Bosniaks fled their country 20 years ago. Europe does not need another refugee crisis, and the U.S. -- already occupied by developments with ISIS, the Arabian peninsula, and North Korea -- does not need another hotspot." | | How Saudi Arabia Is Hurting Itself | | Saudi Arabia's efforts to isolate Qatar by exploiting "divisions within the Sunni Arab community" over the Muslim Brotherhood could backfire, argues Ross Harrison in Foreign Policy. Indeed, it could be that divisions in the Arab world pose an even greater threat to the Kingdom than Iran.
"Saudi Arabia considers the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, while Qatar has kept avenues open to this nearly century-old political organization with deep roots in several Arab countries," Harrison writes.
"While one could debate the motives behind Qatar's actions, conflating the Brotherhood with the threats from jihadist groups like the Islamic State and al Qaeda recklessly delegitimizes the middle ground within the Sunni ideological spectrum, something that could blow back in Riyadh's face. By pushing the Brotherhood out of the Sunni debate, Saudi Arabia (along with the United Arab Emirates) creates an opening for more extremist organizations, possibly those with deep Syrian roots like al Qaeda's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which could pose a significant threat to the Saudis and the broader Arab world."
| | The Danger of the "Splinternet" | | A string of court rulings around the world covering online speech are creating troubling precedents, suggests Davey Alba in Wired. They risk creating a sanitized "splinternet" where the strictest local rulings end up being applied everywhere – and freedom of expression suffers.
"Not that there's anything wrong with an internet filled with cute cat photos -- as long as there is space for healthy, vibrant, controversial discourse, too. If the national laws and mores of two different places are in direct opposition, the risk is that discourse in the less strict nation will be limited by the rules of the stricter place. In the worst case scenario, entire events could be wiped from the online record," Alba writes.
"Part of the problem is that only a handful of American tech companies control so much of what we see online, and there is still no centralized forum for internet governance. There are a few international groups, such as the United Nations' International Telecommunication Union or the Internet Governance Forum or the Freedom Online Coalition, but none of these have real power to establish a global standard recognized by all."
| | Things Get Heated on China-India Border | | An ongoing border dispute between China and India is creating tension not seen between the two countries for decades, the South China Morning Post editorializes. The heated nationalist rhetoric could easily see a troop stand-off escalate – and underscores just how bad relations between the two nations have become.
"Troops have been building in strength on both sides for a month in the Donglong region, an area neighboring Tibet claimed by China and the tiny kingdom of Bhutan. Construction of a road by the People's Liberation Army prompted Bhutan to call on its closest ally, India, for help and soldiers were sent across the border from the Indian state of Sikkim. For New Delhi, the deployment was also protection of a corridor of land that connects India with its northeastern states. China has retaliated by preventing Indian pilgrims from using a nearby pass to visit a sacred Tibetan mountain."
| | Chinese Moviegoers Get a Little Extra to Go with Their Popcorn | | Chinese moviegoers are now getting a little something extra with their movies, whether they want it or not, writes Patrick Brzeski for the Hollywood Reporter. A serving of Communist Party propaganda.
"Beginning July 1, Beijing's media regulators began requiring all Chinese cinemas to air one of four short propaganda videos before every film screened in the country," Brzeski reports.
"The spots, roughly three minutes in length, espouse all of the Chinese Communist Party's usual shibboleths, such as 'core socialist values' and President Xi Jinping's vision of 'the Chinese dream.' To help the socialist medicine go down smooth, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, which produced the videos, recruited some of China's biggest stars, such as Jackie Chan, Fan Bingbing and Angelababy, to appear in the clips." | | | | | | |
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