| | | | Why It's Time to Contemplate Trump Winning a Peace Prize | | Kim Jong Un's regime is willing to talk to the United States about abandoning its nuclear weapons, at least according to the South's interpretation of a remarkable round of diplomacy. It's early days, but it might actually be time to start contemplating a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for President Trump, suggests David Usborne in The Independent.
"The amateur antics of Trump with respect to the Korea problem have been terrifying…He has attached zero urgency to appointing an ambassador to South Korea. His threats against the North have created unprecedented tensions between Seoul and Washington," Usborne says.
But thanks largely to the serious application of tough sanctions, "we can say this with some degree of confidence: we wouldn't be where we are now were it not for the extreme pressure applied by Trump, pressure, by the way, which the Obama administration chose, for whatever reasons, not to apply."
"This may yet all fall apart. But if this proves to be the beginning of the end of what was rapidly shaping up to be the most serious international security crisis of our times, then a tremendous amount of credit will be due Trump. Whether or not he always knew what he was doing, his instinct was clear: there will no more pussyfooting around Pyongyang. A dangerous strategy for sure, but one that just may be about to bear fruit."
| | The Big Coming Test for the Trump-Netanyahu Bromance | | The meeting Monday between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a reminder that the two leaders have good personal chemistry. But Trump is likely to be disappointed if he's hoping that rapport can be parlayed into a Middle East peace deal, suggests Herb Keinon for the Jerusalem Post.
"Trump is a businessman, the quintessential businessman. In business you give not out of altruism, but with the expectation of getting something in return," Keinon writes. "And here is where relations between the two leaders get a little dicey.
"Trump, like Netanyahu, also has his own domestic and legal difficulties. One thing that would be beneficial would be to score a success in the Mideast diplomatic process, which Trump himself has characterized as the 'ultimate deal.'"
"But the prime minister, because of his political uncertainty – the possibility that, either due to the crisis with the Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) over conscription or because of his legal situation, he may have to go to early elections – is in no position to start making concessions."
"A test of how genuinely close their relationship is…is how Trump will react if Netanyahu is unable, because of his particular circumstances right now, to give Trump what he needs."
| | Why Russia's "Shadow War" Is Going to Get More Vicious | | It's still unclear if a now critically ill former Russian military official -- convicted by Russia of spying for Britain -- was deliberately poisoned. But the incident bears some of the hallmarks of Moscow's emerging espionage playbook. And could be a sign of the "more vicious 'shadow war' to come," argues Mark Galeotti in the Moscow Times.
"Increasingly…the Federal Security Service (FSB), the main domestic security agency, is also active abroad. This is a very different service, one of political policemen used to operating without rules, with impunity, and under the benevolent protection of the Kremlin," Galeotti writes.
"They neither know nor care about the old etiquette. Their service is powerful enough not to care if its adventures cause problems for the foreign ministry and, indeed, unlike the GRU [military intelligence agency] and SVR [foreign intelligence agency], many FSB networks do not even operate outside embassies. They are often amateurish, but aggressive.
"Given the carnivorously competitive world of Russian security politics, though, they have also triggered something of a race to the bottom. The other services, unwilling to be portrayed as conservative or hesitant, have had to adopt a similar wartime culture, in which it is better to take a chance than miss one, and in which risks are there to be taken." "Poisoning can…send a very public and dramatic message. Alexander Litvinenko's slow death from Polonium 210 in a London hospital bed in the winter of 2006 was one of the most public assassinations in history. The Russians think through their actions: this sent a very clear message: enemies of the state will be killed."
| | The World's Richest Person Is… | | There's a new king of Forbes' annual billionaires list, with Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos dethroning Bill Gates as the world's richest person.
A record 2,208 people made this year's list, Forbes says. "Altogether they are worth a record $9.1 trillion, up 18% from a year ago. The 20 richest people on the planet are worth a staggering $1.2 trillion, a sum roughly equivalent to the annual economic output of Mexico. In aggregate, they may represent less than 1% of total billionaires but their riches amount to 13% of the total fortune of all billionaires worldwide," Kerry A. Dolan and Luisa Kroll note for the magazine.
"On this year's list, the billionaires hail from 72 countries and territories, including the first ever from Hungary and Zimbabwe. One country not represented: Saudi Arabia. Forbes chose to leave off all 10 Saudis given reports of asset seizures after the Saudi Crown Prince detained some 200 people, including some billionaires, some for as long as three months."
One loser, compared with last year? President Trump, "whose fortune fell $400 million since March 2017 to a current $3.1 billion. He is now ranked 766 in the world, down from 544."
| | Why Italians are Heading Out the Door | | | Voters in Italy held open the door for the country's populists in Sunday's election. They better keep it open, because the resulting political stalemate and stagnation is likely to mean even more Italians heading out, suggests Edoardo Campanella for Project Syndicate. "France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States are the main magnets. London, is said to be Italy's fifth-largest city – after Rome, Milan, Naples, and Turin – with roughly 250,000 Italians. Not even Brexit has halted immigration from Italy, contrary to the prevailing trends in Western Europe. This is a clear symptom of the dissatisfying conditions back home, where a rigid labor market, inadequate funding for academic research and start-ups, and a socioeconomic system biased toward the old prevent individuals from expressing their full potential," Campanella writes. "But Italy is not just losing skilled, ambitious, and visionary workers. Its intellectual elite is pouring out of the country, too. OECD data for the years 1996-2011 show that, among the largest European countries, Italy is a net contributor of scientists to the rest of the world." | | | | | | |
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